Sell S&P 500 @ 1760- invalid

Previous signal:
Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1760 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Stocks dropped too fast but failed to rebound, S&P 500 staying just below 1760 yet still trying to break above 1760, resistance @ 1760 for now

Risk: It might try to break above 1760 again

Result: invalid
S&P 500 broke above resistance @ 1760, therefore invalid & not safe to trade
S&P 500 also went down at the end of the day as we expected, but it was too risky to trade today as stocks became volatile at the end of the month

Sell S&P 500 @ 1760

Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1760 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Stocks dropped too fast but failed to rebound, S&P 500 staying just below 1760 yet still trying to break above 1760, resistance @ 1760 for now

Risk: It might try to break above 1760 again

US economic reports update

Chicago PMI
Actual: 65.9   Estimate: 55.1   Previous: 55.7

Stocks to watch

Facebook reported earnings that beat estimates & strong growth in mobile advertising but said it didn't plan on boosting ads frequency
Stock dropped from 49.01 to 46.44
Analysts raised FB's price target
Look to buy FB below 50.0 as it might rebound

Visa reported a sharp drop in earnings
Stock dropped from 203.82 to 198.69

Mastercard's earnings rose 14%
but stock is down from 724 to 720

Exxon Mobil's profit decreased 18% but still beat expectations
Stock is up from 88.81 to 89.85

Trading will be risky & volatile today as it's the end of the month
Stocks will most likely go down at the end of the day
Trade cautiously

Unemployment Claims update

Unemployment Claims
Actual: 340K   Estimate: 341K   Previous: 350K

US economic events 31 October 2013

8:30am
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
9:45am
Chicago PMI

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760- won

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1760 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Rebounding @ 1757.31
Risk: S&P 500 dropped from 1770 after FOMC statement & might drop more if it fails to stay above

Result: won
S&P 500 never went below 1760, expired @ 1762.81 at 3:00pm EDT , 1763.87 at 3:30pm EDT & closed slightly lower @ 1763.31
1st confirmation @ 1760.14, 2nd @ 1760.32 & it went up higher as we expected

Supports & resistances to watch tomorrow:
Support @ 1760, smaller support @ 1762
Mostly smaller resistances @ 1766, 1770, 1773, 1774, 1775 based on today's market, most important level would be 1770
Watch S&P 500 @ 1770 important key level for support/ resistance

Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- 1 win, 1 invalid/ win at higher risk

Previous signal:
Watch S&P 500 @ 1770, buy if it rebounds anywhere near it, even if it drops below, for 30 minutes expiration
But it'll be at a higher risk because we'll be trading on market patterns instead of supports/resistances
(that are not followed accurately recently) & patterns can change anytime
Recent market pattern is breaking below supports then rebound
Watch for possible drops at 10am & 11am EDT, then buy S&P 500 if it rebounds for 30 minutes expiration

Results: 1 win, 1 invalid/ win at higher risk
S&P 500 dropped from 1772.99 at 10am EDT as we predicted, to 1770.99 (buying point) & expired @ 1771.94 at 10:30am EDT
S&P 500 also dropped from 1772.70 at 11am EDT but dropped too low to 1767.38, not near 1770
Therefore invalid &  not safe to trade, although a higher risk trade would've still barely won as it expired @ 1767.56 at 12pm EDT

Although we were able to predict the drops at 10am & 11am EDT even before the market opened, these predictions are based on recent market pattern & highly experimental
They should be used less as patterns can change anytime & predictions cannot be confirmed beforehand for safer trades
We chose not to sell as it's widely expected that the Fed will not taper until next year
We also expected it to rebound higher like it did yesterday but S&P 500 failed to do so after failing to break above resistance @ 1773, showing that patterns cannot be all that accurate

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1760 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Rebounding @ 1757.31

Risk: S&P 500 dropped from 1770 after FOMC statement & might drop more if it fails to stay above

FOMC statement update

The Federal Reserve said that economy recovery is slowed & restrained by fiscal policy which caused the US government shutdown
The Fed decided not to taper & QE remains the same at $85 billion per month as expected

But the market is already too high & overbought that it might already be priced in
Stocks dropped from 1770 to 1757.31 & might be rebounding

General Motors earnings report

General Motors' earnings fell 53% due to special charges but still managed to beat estimates
Stock is dropping but finding support @ 36.89
Possible resistance @ 37.0

Stock Market Analysis & Stocks to watch

Stocks continued to go up despite being overbought
Stock Futures dropped after weak economic data but might rebound when market opens
S&P Futures resistance @ 1770 but might be temporary
Watch S&P Futures @ S&P 500 for correlation

Watch S&P 500 @ 1770, buy if it rebounds anywhere near it, even if it drops below, for 30 minutes expiration
But it'll be at a higher risk because we'll be trading on market patterns instead of supports/resistances
(that are not followed accurately recently) & patterns can change anytime
Recent market pattern is breaking below supports then rebound
Watch for possible drops at 10am & 11am EDT, then buy S&P 500 if it rebounds for 30 minutes expiration

The market will also be waiting for FOMC statement @ 2pm EDT later
Trading will be at a higher risk today

General Motors will report earnings today
Stock is up from 36.06 to 37.14
Possible support @ 36, 37

Visa & Facebook will report earnings after the market closes
Visa stock is up from 204.24 to 205.69
Possible support @ 204, 205

FB stock is up from 49.40 to 49.87
Possible support/resistance @ 50

IBM announced another $15 billion stock buyback yesterday
Stock went up to 182.12 but dropped to 181.79 pre-market
Possible support/resistance @ 182

US economic reports update

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Actual: 130K   Estimate: 151K   Previous: 145K
Core CPI m/m
Actual: 0.1%   Estimate: 0.2%   Previous: 0.1%
CPI m/m
Actual: 0.2%   Estimate: 0.2%   Previous: 0.1%

US economic news 30 October 2013

8:15am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30am
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m

2:00pm
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate

Stock Market Analysis

S&P 500 broke below 1765 then above 1768, 1770 inconsistently & went up to 1772.01
Trading will continue to be at a higher risk tomorrow as stocks are overbought but the market is still going higher & might possibly crash soon because of weak supports
It is also not following supports & resistances accurately anymore
Trade less or none at all tomorrow as FOMC statement will also increase risk & volatility

Buy S&P 500 @ 1766- invalid/ win at higher risk

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1766 if it stays above, for 30 minutes
S&P 500 possible support @ 1766, possible temporary resistance @ 1768, stronger resistance @ 1770

Result: invalid/ win at higher risk
S&P 500 expired @ 1767.27 at 11:30am EDT even after dropping below 1766 & slightly below 1765

Buy Apple @ 525- won (30 minutes) lost (1 hour)

Buy Apple @ 530 if it rebounds & stays above, for 30 minutes-1hour expiration (1 hour preferred)
Trading signals update: changes
Apple possible rebounding @ 525, buy Apple @ 525 instead of 530
Buy at a higher risk because support is broken & invalid
You can also choose not to trade because the market is unstable today

Result: won (30 minutes) lost (1 hour)
Apple expired @ 528.70 at 10:30am EDT but 525.30 at 11:00am
We should've also mentioned that our preferred expiry is changed back to our normal 30 minutes expiration because of the change & a higher risk

Buy S&P 500 @ 1765- win at higher risk

Previous signal:
Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1765 if it drops back closer, rebounds & stays above 1765, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred)
S&P 500 possible support @ 1765
2nd possible but weak support @ 1767 (higher risk)
Risk: Market is overbought & unstable, support not confirmed yet, trade cautiously

S&P 500 broke below 1767 & 1765 & became invalid
Trading signals update: changes
S&P 500 possible rebounding @ 1764.44, buy S&P 500 @ 1765 still possible to win
Buy at a higher risk because supports are broken & are invalid
But if the market follows yesterday's pattern, it'll still go higher even after breaking below support

You can also choose not to trade because the market is unstable today

Result: win at higher risk
S&P 500 expired @ 1766.87 at 10:30am EDT even after breaking below 1765 as we suspected

Buy Pfizer @ 31.1- win at higher risk

Previous signal:
Buy Pfizer @ 30.436 or higher if it rebounds, for 30 minutes expiration
Higher risk trade update:
Buy Pfizer @ 31.1 or slightly below (preferred) or 31.0 (stronger possible support) for 30 minutes expiration instead of 30.436 after it rebounded too high during pre-market

Result: win at higher risk
Pfizer expired @ 31.29 at 11:30am EDT
Opportunity to buy was when it returned closer & rebound @ 31.17 at 10:56am

Buy S&P 500 @ 1766 update: invalid & avoid

Buy S&P 500 @ 1766 invalid after it broke below 1766
Avoid trading anymore because the risk is too high, it might not go up again like it did earlier
Stronger support @ 1765 but also at risk of being broken

Stock Market Analysis

The market followed yesterday's pattern earlier, going up higher even after breaking below support
That was why we were willing to continue buying even after it broke below support & won
But the risk is still higher today as the market is unstable
Apple's support @ 530 also turned into resistance but it might break above later
Not quite safe to trade anymore after Consumer Confidence plunged the most in 2 years
Trading today will be at a higher risk

Buy S&P 500 @ 1766

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1766 if it stays above, for 30 minutes
S&P 500 possible support @ 1766, possible temporary resistance @ 1768, stronger resistance @ 1770

Buy Pfizer update: Buy @ 31.1 at higher risk

Higher risk trade update:
Buy Pfizer @ 31.1 or slightly below (preferred) or 31.0 (stronger possible support) for 30minutes expiration instead of 30.436 after it rebounded too high during pre-market

Pfizer 2nd possible (weak) support @ 31.1
Risks: It might be too high & possible resistance @ 31.2

Trading signals update: changes

S&P 500 possible rebounding @ 1764.44, buy S&P 500 @ 1765 still possible to win
Apple possible rebounding @ 525, buy Apple @ 525 instead of 530
Both at a higher risk because supports are broken & are invalid
But if the market follows yesterday's pattern, it'll still go higher even after breaking below support

You can also choose not to trade because the market is unstable today

Consumer Confidence & Business Inventories update

CB Consumer Confidence
Actual: 71.2   Estimate: 75.2   Previous: 79.7
Business Inventories m/m
Actual: 0.3%   Estimate: 0.3%   Previous: 0.4%

Buy Apple @ 530

Buy Apple @ 530 if it rebounds & stays above, for 30 minutes-1hour expiration (1 hour preferred)

Buy S&P 500 @ 1765 update (or 1767 at a higher risk)

S&P 500 2nd possible (but still weak) support @ 1767 (higher risk)
Best trade before 10am's economic data

Buy S&P 500 @ 1765

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1765 if it drops back closer, rebounds & stays above 1765, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred)
S&P 500 possible support @ 1765
2nd possible but weak support @ 1767 (higher risk)

Risk: Market is overbought & unstable, support not confirmed yet, trade cautiously

Buy Pfizer @ 30.436

Buy Pfizer @ 30.436 or higher if it rebounds, for 30 minutes expiration
Pfizer, the pharmaceutical giant reported better than expected earnings
But stock is down from 30.74 to 30.45
Possible rebound @ 30.45, dropping lower than 30.436 will be invalid

Sell S&P Futures @ 1760.65- invalid

Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1760.65 if it stays below, for 5 minutes expiration
S&P Futures went up after economic news but is dropping @ 1760.65
Risk: Trading the news can be quite risky as it becomes volatile

Result: invalid
S&P Futures broke above 1760.65 resistance & is staying flat @ 1761.125
1760.65 might turn into support
It should drop but continues to go higher, so it might not be safe to trade anymore

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI update

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Actual: 12.8%   Estimate: 12.4%   Previous: 12.4%

Sell S&P Futures @ 1760.65

Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1760.65 if it stays below, for 5 minutes expiration
S&P Futures went up after economic news but is dropping @ 1760.65

Risk: Trading the news can be quite risky as it becomes volatile

US economic reports update

Core Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.4%   Estimate: 0.4%   Previous: 0.1%
PPI m/m
Actual: -0.1%   Estimate: 0.2%   Previous: 0.3%
Retail Sales m/m
Actual: -0.1%   Estimate:0.2%   Previous: 0.2%
Core PPI m/m
Actual: 0.1%   Estimate: 0.1%   Previous: 0.0%

Stock Market Analysis

There's a lot of economic news today
The market continues to be overbought & dangerous, supports are weak yet it still wants to go higher
Trades less & more cautiously
S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1760.65 but might be broken above if economic news are good or just because the market wants to go higher

Investors are also waiting for FOMC statement tomorrow
It is widely expected that there'll be no tapering until next year after the US government shutdown took $24 billion out of economy

Yesterday, we mentioned that Apple's earnings beat expectations but stock dropped from 529.88 to 517.25 & it will most likely go up to reach for 530 again
Apple already rebounded up to 532 as we expected at 8am EDT during pre-market trading
We might've missed a good opportunity to buy Apple below 530 but it's still possible to buy @ 530 if it stays above, although at a higher risk

US economic news 29 October 2013

8:30am
Core Retail Sales m/m
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Core PPI m/m

9:00am
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

10:00am
CB Consumer Confidence
Business Inventories m/m

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760- invalid/ win at higher risk

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
S&P 500 broke above 1760 despite the last bad economic data, wait for it to drop back closer & rebound before buying for a higher chance to win

Result: invalid/ win at higher risk
We mentioned to wait for it to drop back & rebound, S&P 500 dropped back to 1760.04 at 10:54am EDT but failed to rebound, therefore invalid

It also hit 1760.00 at 11:44am, 1759.99 at 11:54am, possible but risky to buy @ 1760 & win for 12:30am expiration @ 1762.11, resistance @ 1765, dropped below 1760 again at 3:48pm & rebounded to close @ 1762.11

Conclusion: Support @ 1760 is weak yet the market wants to go higher, resistance @ 1765 but might be temporary because the market wants to go higher
Watch S&P 500 @ 1760 & 1765 tomorrow

Sell Merck @ 45.5- lost

Sell Merck @ 45.5 or 46.0 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
2nd possible resistance
Risk: oversold

Result: lost
Unfortunately, Merck expired @ 45.48 at 10:30am EDT, slightly above the price 45.465 after we issued signal
A better time would be selling @ 45.48 at 10:30am for 11am EDT expiration @ 45.31

Although we were correct about 45.5 being resistance, price spiked for a few minutes & resulted in a loss
It also stayed below 45.5 for the rest of the day, which confirms that 45.5 is a strong resistance, next resistance @ 45.4 but it kept hitting 45.4 which is too close & not safe to trade

Apple's earnings beat expectations but stock dropped

Wall Street expected Apple's growth to continue slowing down
But Apple's earnings, revenue & future expectations all beat estimates
Apple dropped from 529.88 to 517.25 possibly due to profit taking
It's also possible for Apple to rebound tomorrow after being oversold as it still remains one of the most undervalued & profitable company
Look to buy Apple below 530 tomorrow, supports not found yet but it will most likely go up to reach for 530 again

Buy Apple @ 524- won

Buy Apple @ 524 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Risks: Rebounding but weak, dropped below 524

Result: won
Apple expired @ 525.185 at 10:30am EDT although you need to trade it asap or might end up losing instead
We issued signal just after it hit 524 at 10am EDT & rebounded after 2 minutes

Apple also closed @ 529.88, (we targeted 530) which shows investors' uncertainty & lack of confidence

Buy Boeing @ 130- 1 win, 1 invalid

Previous signals:
Speculation: Boeing will break above 130
Confirmation: Boeing breaks & stays above 130

Emirates Airline is considering a $30 billion order for Boeing jets

2 trades:
Buy Boeing below 130 (Higher risk as it's not confirmed)
Buy Boeing @ 130 if it stays above

Both for 30 minutes expiration

Result: 1 win, 1 invalid
Buy Boeing below 130: Boeing broke above 130 & expired @ 130.06 at 10:30am EDT
Buy Boeing @ 130 if it stays above: Boeing failed to stay above 130, therefore invalid & not safe to trade

Although we won, it failed to stay above as we expected
Speculations are quite risky as it's not confirmed & we should trade them less
Confirmations would be more accurate as it showed that support @ 130 is weak when it failed to stay above 130

Apple stock analysis

Apple built (weak) support @ 524, 526, 528 & looks steady for now
It's still possible for Apple to stay above 530 at the end of the day, but we've already bought & won @ 524
It also seems too high now, plus added volatility at the end of the day, it's safer to just stay with our previous win
Although you can still choose to buy Apple @ 530 for 4pm EDT end of day expiration at a higher risk but not recommended

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760

Buy S&P 500 @ 1760 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
S&P 500 broke above 1760 despite the last bad economic data, wait for it to drop back closer & rebound before buying for a higher chance to win

Pending Home Sales update

Pending Home Sales m/m
Actual: -5.6%   Estimate: 0.5%   Previous: -1.6%

Sell Merck @ 45.5

Sell Merck @ 45.5 or 46.0 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
2nd possible resistance

Risk: oversold

Buy Apple @ 524

Buy Apple @ 524 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Risks: Rebounding but weak, dropped below 524

Buy Boeing @ 130

Speculation: Boeing will break above 130
Confirmation: Boeing breaks & stays above 130

Emirates Airline is considering a $30 billion order for Boeing jets

2 trades:
Buy Boeing below 130 (Higher risk as it's not confirmed)
Buy Boeing @ 130 if it stays above

Both for 30 minutes expiration

Stock Market Analysis

S&P 500 dropped from 1760 as it might be too high but possible to go higher
S&P Futures is still testing 1754, wavering around it
Apple also dropped from 530, following S&P 500's drop

Conclusion: 1760 might just be temporary resistance, economic data looks good, market is still uncertain, wait for more data @ 10am EDT, look to buy S&P 500 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

US economic reports update

Capacity Utilization Rate
Actual: 78.3%   Estimate: 78.1%   Previous: 77.8%
Industrial Production m/m
Actual: 0.6%   Estimate: 0.5%   Previous: 0.4%

Stocks to watch

S&P 500 went up but dropped back during pre-market, showing uncertainty & no clear direction
S&P Futures important level @ 1754, economic data might help determine a direction
Watch 1754 but do not trade it as trading the news can be risky, although it's possible to win by buying if it stays above, selling if it stays below

Apple is expected to report earnings after the market closes today
Stock jumped from 525.96 to 528.90
Stock should close above 530 if investors' sentiment is bullish & they buy ahead of it
Look to buy Apple @ 530 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration & 4pm EDT end of day expiration

Merck's earnings beats estimates but sales & revenue missed expectations
According to analysts: "Merck sentiment continues to get really bad", "We continue to expect earnings disappointment"
Stock dropped from 46.54 to 45.50, possible resistance @ 46.0 but might be too high because it's oversold
Look to sell Merck if it reaches 46.0 & drop again, for 30 minutes expiration

US economic reports 28 October 2013

9:15am
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
10:00am
Pending Home Sales m/m

25 October 2013 trading signals results

Previous signals:
Medium risk trade:
Buy Microsoft @ 35.9 (stronger support) or 36.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above, wait for it to return closer
Microsoft broke above resistance @ 36.0, failed to stay above & dropped back but tried again & is staying above

Buy Netflix @ 330
Buy Apple @ 530
Buy Amazon @ 360 (2nd possible support @ 365 but might be too high)
Buy S&P 500 @ 1755
All for 30 minutes expiration if they stays above, wait for them to return closer for a higher chance to win

Sell Boeing @ 130.0 for 30 minutes or less expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below

Risk: It might break above 130 later

Buy S&P 500 @ 1754 if it stays above & go higher, for 30 minutes expiration
The market continues to be unstable, S&P 500 dropped below 1755, Buy S&P @ 1755 becomes invalid, possible rebound @ 1753.31
Wait for it to drop back, buy around 1754 if it stays above & go higher

Results: 
All stocks returned closer but broke below supports & became invalid as we mentioned that
"The market is quite unstable today, earnings reports are strong but most economic news are bad, trade less & more cautiously
Stocks shot up after the last bad economic data at 10am EDT
Wait for them to pull back & return closer to our target prices then buy if they stay above"

Buy Microsoft @ 35.9 (stronger support) or 36.0- invalid
Microsoft dropped below 36.0 again

Buy Netflix @ 330- invalid
Netflix dropped below 330

Buy Apple @ 530- invalid
Apple dropped below 530

Buy Amazon @ 360- invalid
Amazon dropped below 360

Sell Boeing @ 130.0- invalid
Boeing broke above 130 even when all stocks are going down

Buy S&P 500 @ 1755- invalid
S&P 500 dropped below 1755

Buy S&P 500 @ 1754- invalid
S&P 500 broke below 1754 although it expired @ 1755.40 at 11:30am EDT
We'll not count this as a win because it became invalid & not safe to trade

Conclusion: The market was chaotic today as earnings reports are strong but most economic news are bad
S&P 500 also unexpectedly reached 1759.77 at the end of the day
We've already mentioned that we should trade less & more cautiously
No trades should be made today as all signals became invalid due to irregular market movements

S&P 500 possible support @ 1755

S&P 500 broke above resistance @ 1755, possible to turn it into support if it's strong enough but the market is still quite volatile

Not safe to trade anymore

S&P 500 failed to go up higher & dropped back below 1754  instead, resistance formed @ 1755, not safe to trade anymore, stock market is too volatile today

Sell Boeing @ 130.0

Sell Boeing @ 130.0 for 30 minutes or less expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below

Risk: It might break above 130 later

Buy S&P 500 @ 1754

Buy S&P 500 @ 1754 if it stays above & go higher, for 30 minutes expiration
The market continues to be unstable, S&P 500 dropped below 1755, Buy S&P @ 1755 becomes invalid, possible rebound @ 1753.31
Wait for it to drop back, buy around 1754 if it stays above & go higher

Stock Market Analysis

The market is quite unstable today, earnings reports are strong but most economic news are bad, trade less & more cautiously
Stocks shot up after the last bad economic data at 10am EDT
Wait for them to pull back & return closer to our target prices then buy if they stay above

US economic reports update

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Actual: 73.2   Estimate: 75.8   Previous: 75.2
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Actual: 3.0%  Previous:  2.9%

Wholesale Inventories m/m
Actual: 0.5%   Estimate: 0.3%  Previous:  0.1%

Buy Microsoft @ 36.0, Buy Netflix @ 330, Buy Apple @ 530, Buy Amazon @ 360, Buy S&P 500 @ 1755

Medium risk trade:
Buy Microsoft @ 35.9 (stronger support) or 36.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above, wait for it to return closer
Microsoft broke above resistance @ 36.0, failed to stay above & dropped back but tried again & is staying above

Buy Netflix @ 330
Buy Apple @ 530
Buy Amazon @ 360 (2nd possible support @ 365 but might be too high)
Buy S&P 500 @ 1755
All for 30 minutes expiration if they stays above, wait for them to return closer for a higher chance to win

Stocks to watch

The market will focus on earnings reports today & stocks should go up today because of strong earnings reports
It might be better to wait for more economic news @ 10am EDT before trading

Procter & Gamble will reflect consumer spending
P&G's core earnings per share fell 1% & only met expectations but sales were better than expectations
Stock is down from 80.61 to 80.18, watch 80.0 (stronger support) or 80.3

United Parcel Service will reflect goods shipping conditions & indicates overall economic health
UPS reported stronger profits due to increased demand in US e-commerce shipments & strong European export growth
Stock is up from 94.49 to 97.0 but might be too high, watch 97.0 for support/resistance

Amazon reported a loss of $0.09 EPS, in line with expectations but revenue was better than expected
Stocks jumped from 332.21 to 359 & might be too high, watch 360 for possible support or resistance

Microsoft reported better than expected earnings & revenue
Possible resistance @ 36.0 & 35.67 but also possible to break above 36.0 & turn it into support if momentum is strong enough

Boeing secured $20.7 billion worth of deals from multiple China customers but yet to be approved by the Chinese government
Stock is up from 128.98 to 129.59, watch 130 for possible breakthrough, it should at least be a temporary resistance before it fails or manages to break above it
Momentum is weak for now

Apple possible support @ 530
Apple's earnings report on Monday but after market closes

Netflix possible support/resistance @ 330

Durable Goods Orders update

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Actual: -0.1%   Estimate: 0.6%   Previous: -0.4%
Durable Goods Orders m/m
Actual:  3.7%   Estimate: 1.7%  Previous: 0.2%

S&P Futures after Durable Goods Orders data

S&P Futures dropped from 1749 after mixed economic data of Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30am EDT
Durable Goods Orders were better than expected but Core Durable Goods Orders were worse than expected, not quite safe to trade
2nd possible resistance @ 1748, possible high risk trades will be sell @ 1748 or 1749 for 5 minutes expiration but not recommended because of volatility & mixed economic data
Stocks should also go up because of strong earnings reports

US economic news 25 October 2013

8:30am
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
9:55am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00am
Wholesale Inventories m/m

Buy Apple @ 524- won

Buy Apple @ 524 or 523 (stronger support) for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Apple broke above temporary resistance @ 524, see if it can stay above

Result: won (barely)
Apple expired @ 524.35 at 10:30am EDT, a better expiration would be @ 526.64 at 11:00am EDT
Apple's stock moved too slowly but stayed above 524, it also went up higher later & closed @ 531.91 at the end of the day

Apple also closed below 520 the day it announced iPad Air, when it should've stayed above
It only did after the market closed & never went below 520 after that
Apple's stock might require a longer expiration for an easier win if it continues to follow previous market behavior

Sell Xerox @ 10.0- invalid/ win at higher risk

Sell Xerox @ 10.0 if it stays below, for 30 minutes
Xerox's earnings missed expectations

Result: invalid/ win at a higher risk
Although it slightly broke above 10.0 for a while & became invalid, after it failed to stay above, dropped back & stayed below, it should be safe to trade, but at a slightly higher risk
If you traded at a higher risk after it dropped back & stayed below 10.0, Xerox expired @ 9.69 at 10:30am EDT & stayed below 10.0 for the rest of the day

Sell Netflix @ 330- won

Sell Netflix @ 330 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
330 is becoming resistance

Result: Netflix expired @ 325.749 at 10:30am EDT

Note that it broke above 330 after 11am EDT & stayed above for the rest of the day
330 should continue to become a key level tomorrow, either a strong support or resistance depending on the market
Watch Netflix @ 330 again tomorrow

Sell S&P 500 @ 1750- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1746- won

Sell S&P 500 @ 1750 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
Risk: Economic news @ 10am EDT, the market might go up ahead of it

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1748.06 at 10am EDT
If you choose a less than 30 minutes expiration as we mentioned, you'll increase your chances of winning as it only went back up 10 minutes later


Buy S&P 500 @ 1746 for 5 minutes expiration before 10am EDT
Rebounding

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1748.06 at 10am EDT
The market went up ahead of economic news as we expected earlier

Sell S&P Futures @ 1744.875- won

Previous signal:
High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1744.875 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it stays below (5 minutes preferred)
S&P Futures support @ 1744.875 is broken
Risk: Trading the news can be quite risky as the market becomes volatile

Result: won
S&P Futures expired @ 1743.65 5 minutes later at 9:26am EDT, even further below @ 1742.65 30 minutes later at 10:00am EDT after it tried & failed to break above 1745
(Time shown below is EDT time zone +12 hours)
We mentioned high risk because it was possible for trend to change & break above 1745 when the stock market opened at 9:30am EDT
It almost did but failed

Billionaire Carl Icahn bought more Apple stock

According to the letter Carl Icahn sent to Apple, he increased his investment in Apple by 22% to 4.7 million shares & asked for a $150 billion buyback

He also said that he wouldn't sell his stocks & take profits after that
Apple jumped from 524 to 530
We already issued signal to buy Apple @ 524 earlier

Stock Market Analysis

There's finally a good economic data after mostly weak data earlier
Stocks are rebounding & S&P 500 is targeting 1750
Although S&P Futures is building resistance now, it might break above later because of the last economic report
Not safe to trade it again

Buy Apple @ 524

Buy Apple @ 524 or 523 (stronger support) for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Apple broke above temporary resistance @ 524, see if it can stay above

JOLTS Job Openings update

10:00am
JOLTS Job Openings
Actual: 3.88M     Estimate: 3.77M     Previous: 3.69M

Apple support @ 523, resistance @ 524 (temporarily)

Apple building support @ 523 but it's also facing resistance @ 524 (temporarily)

Buy S&P 500 @ 1746

Buy S&P 500 @ 1746 for 5 minutes expiration before 10am EDT
Rebounding

Sell Xerox @ 10.0

Sell Xerox @ 10.0 if it stays below, for 30 minutes
Xerox's earnings missed expectations

Sell Netflix @ 330

Sell Netflix @ 330 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
330 is becoming resistance

Sell S&P 500 @ 1750

Sell S&P 500 @ 1750 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
Risk: More economic news @ 10am EDT, the market might go up ahead of it

Avoid trading S&P Futures previous signals after 9:30am EDT

Avoid trading S&P Futures previous signals after the market opened at 9:30am EDT
Trend might change, not safe to trade after that
It also broke above 1744.875 for a while

Stock Market Analysis & Stocks to watch

Global stock futures rebounded as China's manufacturing data improved & rose to a 7-month high
US stock futures dropped again after weak economic data of Trade Balance & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am EDT

Ford increased future earnings expectations after reporting better than expected earnings
Stock is up from 17.52 to 18.09
Possible support @ 18.0

Amazon & Microsoft will report earnings after the market closes today
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn wrote a letter to Apple & will reveal the contents tomorrow
It's probably about asking Apple to buy back more shares

Watch Netflix @ 330 for support or resistance
Watch S&P 500 @ 1746

Sell S&P Futures @ 1744.875

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1744.875 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it stays below (5 minutes preferred)
S&P Futures support @ 1744.875 is broken

Risk: Trading the news can be quite risky as the market becomes volatile

S&P Futures support @ 1744.875

S&P Futures should drop more after another bad economic data
But there's still strong support @ 1744.875, also not safe to trade yet

Flash Manufacturing PMI update

9:00am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 51.1     Estimate: 52.8     Previous: 52.8

S&P Futures 2nd possible resistance @ 1745.625

S&P Futures 2nd possible resistance @ 1745.625 but trading the news will be quite risky
S&P Futures dropped after weak economic data 

Update: It broke above then dropped back again, not quite safe to trade although it's still possible to win

US economic reports update (Trade Balance & Unemployment Claims)

Trade Balance
Actual: -38.8B     Estimate: -39.4B     Previous: -39.1B
Unemployment Claims        
Actual: 350K     Estimate: 343K     Previous: 358K

US economic reports 24 October 2013

8:30am
Trade Balance
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
10:00am
New Home Sales
JOLTS Job Openings

Unpublished Trading Signals

Signals below were mentioned as possible supports even before the market opened at 9:29am EDT
http://freebinaryoptionstradingsignals.blogspot.com/2013/10/stocks-to-watch_23.html but unpublished due to lack of confirmation

It would be possible to trade & win buying at the 1st supports but they weren't confirmed to be strong enough as 2nd supports are broken

Buy Apple @ 520 or 522 (2nd possible support) if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Apple only hit 520.24 once & broke below 522

Buy Boeing @ 126 or 127.5 (2nd possible support) if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Boeing broke below 127.5 & only hit 126.10 once

Sell S&P 500 @ 1746 or 1747 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred)
S&P 500 reversed too soon @ 1747, 2nd possible resistance @ 1746

S&P 500 only hit 1745.62 & dropped too fast, too late to publish signal

Sell S&P 500 @ 1744- invalid, Sell Netflix @ 330- won

Sell S&P 500 @ 1744 or 1745 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred)

Result: invalid
S&P 500 broke the downtrend by breaking above 1744 & 1745 to reach 1746
Chance to buy was if it failed & stayed below 1744
By using "if it stays above/below our target price" conditions, we can avoid unnecessary losses even if we're wrong when the market suddenly changes

Sell Netflix @ 330 (2nd possible resistance) or 333 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

Result: won
Netflix expired @ 329.214 at 12:00am EDT
Although it slightly broke above at 330.11, which signaled a higher risk, it kept staying below 330 & only slightly breaking above 330 again just after we won

Netflix almost stayed below 330 for the rest of the day but reached 330 & stayed flat at the end of the day
After-market trading shows 330.00 at 5:17pm EDT, watch 330.00 key level tomorrow as it's very possible for it to become a strong support/resistance, higher probability for support as resistance might be reduced

Sell Caterpillar @ 84.0- invalid

Sell Caterpillar @ 84.0 or 84.25 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: This stock is quite volatile today & is oversold

Result: invalid
Caterpillar broke above 84.0 & 84.25 later but closed below 84.0 at the end of the day
It only stayed barely below 84.0 after 12:22am EDT, which isn't quite safe to trade

Buy Eli Lilly @ 50.0- won

Buy Eli Lilly @ 50.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Support @ 50.0 not confirmed but if it follows S&P 500, it'll rebound around 50.0

Result: won
Eli Lilly expired @ 50.285 at 10:30am EDT & stayed above 50.0 for the rest of the day

Buy S&P 500 @ 1742- won

Buy S&P 500 @ 1742 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding

Result: won (barely)
S&P 500 went up too fast & reversed too soon @ 1747, dropped back to 1742.57 at 10:32am EDT (2nd chance to buy), but broke below  to 1740.94 & rebounded to expire @ 1742.95 at 11:00am EDT
Although we actually won, it didn't really look quite safe to trade when trend changed & it also broke below 1742 8 minutes before it expired,
but sometimes a little bit of luck can also help us win, even though we do not strongly depend on luck to win

Sell S&P 500 @ 1744, Sell Netflix @ 330

Sell S&P 500 @ 1744 or 1745 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred)
Sell Netflix @ 330 (2nd possible resistance) or 333 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

Sell Caterpillar @ 84.0

Sell Caterpillar @ 84.0 or 84.25 (stronger resistance) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: This stock is quite volatile today & is oversold

Trading signals to watch

S&P 500 possible resistance @ 1750
We waited for it to test 1750 but it dropped more
It might try later, sell if it fails to break above 1750

Most stocks look weak as S&P 500 is falling
Possible rebound @ 1740, rebounding @ 1742 but needs confirmation

Eli Lilly possible support @ 50.0

Look to buy Apple @ 520
Look to sell Caterpillar @ 84.0

Buy Eli Lilly @ 50.0

Buy Eli Lilly @ 50.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Support @ 50.0 not confirmed but if it follows S&P 500, it'll rebound around 50.0

Buy S&P 500 @ 1742

Buy S&P 500 @ 1742 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding

Boeing, Caterpillar & Eli Lilly is available at Cedar Finance

Boeing, Caterpillar & Eli Lilly can be traded at Cedar Finance

Stocks to watch

US stock futures (S&P Futures) dropped 12 points as global stocks fall due to concerns over tighter Chinese monetary policy
S&P Futures is trying to rebound @ 1738, 1740
US economic reports were worse than expected & might provide some resistance

Boeing raised future earnings expectations as Q3 profit jumps
Stock is up from 122.48 to 125.99 then 126.46 (price still moving during pre-market)
Possible support @ 126

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s biggest maker of construction and mining equipment reported weak earnings that missed expectations & cuts forecasts as mining equipment orders drop
Stock is down from 89.17 to 85.00 then 84.62
Possible resistance @ 85.00

Eli Lilly and Co reported better than expected earnings & slightly raised future expectations
Stock is up from 50.15 to 50.75

Apple's possible support @ 520, current price: 519.10, look to buy Apple if support is strong

Netflix's possible resistance @ 320, current price: 317.01
It might try to rebound because of being oversold, look to sell Netflix @ 320 if it fails

US economic reports update

Import Prices m/m
Actual: 0.2%   Estimate: 0.3%   Previous: 0.2%
HPI m/m
Actual: 0.3%   Estimate: 0.8%   Previous: 1.0%

US economic reports 23 October 2013

8:30am
Import Prices m/m
9:00am
House Price Index m/m

Billionaire Carl Icahn sold Netflix's stock

Billionaire Carl Icahn sold half of his stake in Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) for profit taking today, just after Netflix broke record & reached a new all-time high
He tweeted that at 5:14pm EDT, after market closed & might be responsible for pulling Netflix's stock down earlier today when we issued signal to sell Netflix
Netflix is down further to 314.5 in after-market trading from 322.52 closing price & might drop more tomorrow even if it's oversold

Buy Apple @ 520- lost

Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Apple just officially announced the new iPad- iPad Air

Result: lost
Apple only stayed above 520 for less than 10 minutes, most probably because of iPad's pricing ($499) again, but we assumed that after the success of iPhone 5S, investors wouldn't worry about pricing yet until iPad Air's sales report

Apple went above 520 to 521.45 during after-market trading
A poll also showed that 63% wants the new iPad Air
If history repeats itself, people will say that nobody would buy iPad Air because it's too expensive, but sales report might show differently

Future strategy according to market patterns: Use a high risk 1-5 minutes expiration for Apple events once it starts & when Apple officially announces a new product or avoid it entirely due to price fluctuations

Sell S&P 500 @ 1760- won

Sell S&P 500 @ 1760 or 1758 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
Trend reversed, possible resistance @ 1760

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1750.74 at 11:00am EDT, making it an easy win

Sell Netflix @ 380- won, Buy Apple @ 520- invalid

Previous signals:
Sell Netflix @ 380 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
1st resistance @ 390, 2nd possible resistance @ 380

Result: won
Netflix dropped instantly & expired @ 361.23 at 10:30am EDT, it also dropped even further to close @ 322.52

Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it rebounds
Possible support @ 520

Result: invalid
Apple rebounded @ 523, which might be too high
Although it's possible to win as it expired @ 524.65 at 10:30am EDT, it would be at a higher risk
It also dropped below 520 later

Sell S&P Futures @ 1744- won

Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1744 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
NFP worse than expected, S&P Futures resistance @ 1744
Risks: Trading the news can be quite risky

Result: won
S&P Futures expired @ 1742.875 at 9am EDT, only breaking above 1744 after 9am EDT's economic news, just after our trade won

Buy Apple @ 520

Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Apple just officially announced the new iPad- iPad Air

Risk: trading the news will be quite risky

Sell S&P 500 @ 1760

Sell S&P 500 @ 1760 or 1758 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
Trend reversed, possible resistance @ 1760

US economic reports update (Richmond Manufacturing Index)

Richmond Manufacturing Index
Actual: 1   Estimate: 0   Previous: 0
Construction Spending m/m
Actual:  0.6%   Estimate: 0.5%   Previous: 0.6%

Sell Netflix @ 380, Buy Apple @ 520

Sell Netflix @ 380 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
1st resistance @ 390, 2nd possible resistance @ 380

Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it rebounds
Possible support @ 520

Stock Market Analysis

NFP was worse than expected but unemployment claims slightly better by 0.1%
TIC Long-Term Purchases also worse than expected

The stock market is overbought, too high & a pullback would be healthy, although investors might still buy as bad economic news will further delay QE tapering
S&P 500 possible resistance @ 1750

Apple will host a media event at 1pm EDT today, which it is expected to announce new iPads
Apple's not really moving based on supports or resistances for now but might continue to go up because of the hype

Netflix broke record & jumped to 389 after earnings report yesterday
It only dropped to 387 after bad economic news
390 might become resistance for now

US economic reports update (TIC Long-Term Purchases)

TIC Long-Term Purchases
Actual: -8.9B   Estimate: 30.9B   Previous: 31.0B

Sell S&P Futures @ 1744

Medium risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1744 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays below
NFP worse than expected, S&P Futures resistance @ 1744

Risks: Trading the news can be quite risky

US economic reports update

Non-Farm Employment Change
Actual: 148K   Estimate: 182K   Previous: 169K
Unemployment Rate
Actual: 7.2%   Estimate: 7.3%   Previous: 7.3%
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Actual: 0.1%   Estimate: 0.2%   Previous: 0.2%

US economic news 22 October 2013

8:30am
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
9:00am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
10:00am
Construction Spending m/m
Richmond Manufacturing Index

Netflix breaks record after earnings report

Netflix breaks record by jumping from 354.99 to 389 (almost 10%) during after-market trading as soon as earnings report was released just after the market closed
Netflix's reported earnings of $0.52 EPS that beat estimates of $0.49 & issued strong guidance for Q4
Subscribers increased a massive 1.29 million in US & 1.44 million overseas
Expected numbers were 1.1 million & 950k

If it follows Google's trend, it'll reach 400 & stay above it for a day or two
It is also unlikely that Netflix investors will sell their stock tomorrow just after they bought it today, therefore it shouldn't drop too much even if there's bad economic news tomorrow
There's a possibilty for previous stock holders to take profit but after it broke record & looks to go up higher, they might have second thoughts
Short sellers would also avoid momentum stocks such as Netflix for now
Although the stock market is technically overbought & should pullback, investors do not seem to care, which makes it harder to determine the market's direction

Sell S&P 500 @ 1745- lost

Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 around 1745 (or lower) for 4pm EDT end of day expiration
S&P 500 failed to stay above 1745 & also broke below support @ 1744, it should close lower at the end of the day because investors will be cautious of NFP tomorrow

Result: lost
S&P 500 expired @ 1744.66, slightly above Friday's closing price but we'll count it as a loss because it went back up too high although 1745 is still not broken

S&P 500 dropped earlier than we expected & also broke below another support @ 1742,
but reversed trend @ 1741 because of the sudden drop & stronger support @ 1740

The reason we chose end of day expiration was because the market was moving quite slowly & 30 minutes might not be enough time for it to drop more
But it suddenly dropped too fast, giving it an opportunity to rebound around 1741
We should've continued using 30 minutes expiration because of the volatility at the end of the day
We should also be more careful tomorrow as the market didn't appear to be cautious at the end of the day & it might also go up despite bad economic news

Sell S&P 500 @ 1745

Sell S&P 500 around 1745 (or lower) for 4pm EDT end of day expiration
S&P 500 failed to stay above 1745 & also broke below support @ 1744, it should close lower at the end of the day because investors will be cautious of NFP tomorrow

Stock prices update

Existing Home Sales were worse than expected

S&P 500 dropped from 1747.57 & rebounded @ 1742.22 but support is weak around 1742.6

Possible resistance @ 1750 if it stays below

Netflix's support @ 344 but is also quite weak, possible resistance @ 350

McD's support @ 93.5 is weak but it suddenly broke above 94.0 after economic news, 94.0 turned into 2nd support, 2nd possible resistance @ 95.0

All supports are weak as they're broken & resistances are not confirmed although it's still possible to win buying @ those supports & selling @ those resistances

Market direction is quite unclear & it's not really safe to trade yet

US economic reports update

Existing Home Sales
Actual: 5.29M   Estimate: 5.31M   Previous: 5.39M

Stocks to watch

Investors will focus on earnings reports, today's Existing Home Sales & tomorrow's NFP
S&P 500 possible support @ 1740, 1742

McDonald's reported slightly better than expected earnings but offered uninspiring guidance for Q4
Actual earnings: $1.52 EPS   Estimates: 1.51
Revenue was 7.32B instead of an expected 7.33B
McD dropped from 95.20 to 93.55
Possible rebound @ 93.5, possible resistance @ 94.0
Look to buy McD @ 93.5 then sell @ 94.0 for 30 minutes expiration each

Netflix will report earnings after the market closes today
Netflix is up from 333.5 to 339.89 due to strong expectations
Watch 340 for support or resistance
Look to buy Netflix if it stays above 340, sell if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

Existing Home Sales @ 10am EDT might change the market's direction (most probably down), which is expected to be worse than previous

US economic events 21 October 2013

8:00am
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:00am
Existing Home Sales

Sell S&P 500 @ 1740- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1736- won

Sell S&P 500 @ 1740 for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below
Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1736.11 at 10:36am EDT

Buy S&P 500 @ 1736 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding & found some support @ 1736 (slightly weak)
Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1737.92 at 11:00am EDT
S&P 500 also went higher & reached another all-time high to close @ 1744.50

Sell General Motors @ 36.0- won

Sell General Motors @ 36.0 for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below
Risk: GM's sales rose, possible to go higher later

Result: won
GM expired @ 35.84 at 9:50am EDT for 5 minutes expiration
GM also continued to stay below 36.0 for the rest of the day after it failed to break the resistance

Buy S&P 500 @ 1736

Buy S&P 500 @ 1736 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding & found some support @ 1736 (slightly weak)

Sell S&P 500 @ 1740

Sell S&P 500 @ 1740 for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below

Stock Prices update

S&P 500 broke above 1740, possible (weak) support @ 1740 (dropped to 1739.90 before going up higher)
Google broke above 1000 but is strongly overbought yet having strong momentum, too risky to trade it for now

Sell General Motors @ 36.0

Sell General Motors @ 36.0 for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes preferred) if it stays below
Risk: GM's sales rose, possible to go higher later

Stock Prices to watch

S&P 500 1740 temporary resistance
General Motors 36.0 temporary resistance
Morgan Stanley 30.0 temporary resistance
Google 980 temporary resistance

All stocks above are falling except Google which is staying flat @ 980

Stock Market Analysis & Stocks to watch today

China's 3rd quarter GDP growth fastest this year, providing further boost for stock markets
4 Fed officials will speak today starting from 12:30pm EDT
12:30pm   FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00pm     FOMC Member Evans Speaks
3:40pm     FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4:30pm     FOMC Member Stein Speaks

No other US economic events today
The nonfarm payrolls report which was delayed from October 4 due to US government shutdown will now be released on next Tuesday, October 22


S&P 500 possible support/resistance @ 1730, it should act as a support for now & might be targeting 1740

Morgan Stanley's earnings beat expectations as 3rd quarter revenue jumped 50%
Stock is up from 28.93 to 29.90 in pre-market trading

Google continues to climb to 976 after its earnings beat expectations & stock price breaking previous record high

General Motors' global sales rose 4.6% this year
Stocks is up from 35.66 to 36.26

Although stocks are aiming to go up higher because of strong earnings, remember that it's also possible for traders to sell & take profit at the end of the week, which is today, especially after breaking record high

Google reports strong earnings & breaks record

Google reported strong earnings including a 23% rise in revenue that beat expectations after the market closed
Actual: $10.74 EPS (Earnings Per Share)   Expectations: $10.34   Previous: $9.03
Stock soared from 888.79 to 959.76, breaking previous record in after-market trading & is overbought

US shutdown ended, debt limit raised, QE tapering possibly delayed & S&P 500 reaching a new record might also be strong reasons for overbuying, therefore it wouldn't be very safe to buy or sell Google tomorrow, unless supports or resistances are strong enough

Trading Google will be at a higher risk as Google reached an all-time high & is in uncharted territory
Possible resistance @ 960, possible support might be @ 950 but we would need to watch the market's movement 1st before confirming anything

Buy S&P 500 @ 1720- won, Sell S&P 500 @ 1730- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1726- won

Previous signals:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1720 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration or less
S&P 500 broke above 1720 resistance
Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1723.62 at 11:30am EDT
President's speech also helped strengthened support @ 1720

Sell S&P 500 @ 1730 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (1-5 minutes expiration preferred)
Risk: Although 1730 might provide some resistance, the market is still bullish & might break above 1730 later if it's strong enough, trade as soon as possible
Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1726.90 at 1:30pm EDT

S&P 500 stayed below longer than we expected as the market is being cautious before reaching an all-time high after a long rally since the market opened, so any expiration between 1-30 minutes should be a win if you traded as close as possible to 1730
S&P 500 also broke above 1730 later as we suspected

Buy S&P 500 @ 1726 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 rebounded @ 1726 again, support strengthened
Risk: Support @1726 was slightly broken for a while
Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1727.80 at 3pm EDT
S&P 500 also hit a new record & reached an all-time high of 1733.15 (1732.94 shown below is delayed)

Buy S&P 500 @ 1726

Buy S&P 500 @ 1726 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 rebounded @ 1726 again, support strengthened

Risk: Support @ 1726 was slightly broken for a while

Goldman Sachs slashes pay as revenue plunges

Goldman Sachs slashes pay as revenue plunges, an unusual move which indicates the bank's worry about future performance
However, GS stock is still flat & staying around 158
It would probably stay there for the rest of the day
Possible to sell & win if it drops more but support is still there for now

QE tapering might be delayed until next year

Breaking news:
Fed Evans: Most likely outcome is Fed takes 'a couple of meetings' to assess data before adjusting bond buys

This indicates that QE tapering might be delayed until next year
S&P 500 rebounded around 1726 after dropping from 1730
Although it's still possible to buy S&P 500 hoping that it'll target 1730 again, there's no safe supports to buy yet & might drop again if resistance is strong
Medium risk trade would be buying S&P 500 around 1726 for 30 minutes expiration but we prefer to trade using supports & resistances

Sell S&P 500 @ 1730

Sell S&P 500 @ 1730 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (1-5 minutes expiration preferred)

Risk: Although 1730 might provide some resistance, the market is still bullish & might break above 1730 later if it's strong enough, trade as soon as possible

Stocks to watch

Goldman Sachs reported better than expected earnings because of declined expenses but revenue fell
Stock dropped from 162.25 to 156.68
Possible (weak) support @ 158

IBM reported better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates by over $1 billion
IBM also expects to get back on track only by 2014
Stock dropped from 186.05 to 173.0

Ebay also reported better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates
Ebay also reduced future earnings expectations because of  "dramatically decelerating U.S. e-commerce growth"
Stock dropped from 53.25 to 50.33
Possible support @ 51.0

JPMorgan will pay $100 million to settle charges for the "London Whale" trading scandal
Possible resistance @ 54.0, possible support @ 53.66

General Motors plans to produce a bi-fuel Chevy Impala in 2015
Support @ 35.0, 2nd possible support @ 35.4

Apple is expected to unveil new iPads at a October 22 event
Support @ 500

Google is expected to report earnings after stock market closes today

Stocks are rebounding after dropping too low
S&P 500 rebounded from 1714, possible resistance @ 1720, breaking & staying above resistance should be a buying point as the market is quite bullish for now

Buy S&P 500 @ 1720

Buy S&P 500 @ 1720 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration or less
S&P 500 broke above 1720 resistance

US economic reports update

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Actual: 19.8   Estimate: 15.4   Previous: 22.3

Stock Market Analysis

President Obama signed legislation to end shutdown & raise debt limit, temporarily
Stock futures dropped as traders sell the news & take profit
Fed Fisher: Wednesday's deal to end US debt crisis does not solve fiscal problems, only postpones them
The Fed might also postpone QE tapering as the US government shutdown shaved at least 0.6 percent from fourth-quarter 2013 gross domestic product growth, taking $24 billion out of the economy & hurting consumer confidence

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., one of China’s four biggest credit rating companies, downgraded US sovereign credit rating, saying “such political environment over debt repayment renders the dim and pale prospect of the U.S. federal government’s solvency.”
President Obama will deliver a statement at 10:35am EDT about the need for Democrats & Republicans to work together on fiscal issues

Unemployment claims is only slightly higher than expected as California continued to deal with a backlog related to computer problems, indicating it will take time to gauge the impact of the federal shutdown & it might not be quite accurate, stock futures dropped further

Most news are negative today & S&P 500 should continue to drop further too, at least to around 1710 before trying to rebound
President's speech at 10:35am EDT might provide some dim hope that the Democrats & Republicans will learn their lesson & solve their fiscal problems without going through this crisis all over again

Unemployment Claims update

Unemployment Claims
Actual: 358K   Estimate: 357K   Previous: 374K

US economic news 17 October 2013

8:30am
Unemployment Claims
10:00am
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
12:45pm
FOMC Member Evans Speak
FOMC Member George Speaks

US has enough votes to end government shutdown

U.S. House passes legislation with 285 votes (216 votes needed) to end government shutdown & raise the debt limit, and the bill now goes to President Obama to become law, which he'll sign immediately

US political news analysis

Senate announced a deal to raise US debt ceiling & reopen government
The House & Senate will both vote to approve the deal
Both sides are confident that US House will have enough votes to approve Senate deal
Voting is between 6-7pm EDT & 8-10pm EDT
The House's statement: The House has fought with everything it has to convince the president of the United States to engage in bipartisan negotiations aimed at addressing our country's debt and providing fairness for the American people under ObamaCare. That fight will continue. But blocking the bipartisan agreement reached today by the members of the Senate will not be a tactic for us

Therefore the deal to raise US debt ceiling & reopen government will most likely be approved by midnight
But it might've already been priced into the market as it is reaching an all-time high
Watch S&P 500's 1730 for possible resistance, traders might sell & take profit at 1730
If it breaks & stays above, it should continue going up higher
Look to buy S&P 500 if it breaks & stays above 1730

It is also highly possible for the market to be overbought or oversold, therefore technicals may not be quite accurate

Buy S&P 500 @ 1710- abandoned

Previous signal:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1710 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Breaking news: Boehner has agreed to take up the Senate's plan and allow it to pass with Democrate's votes

Update: Abandon Buy S&P 500 @ 1710
2nd Breaking news: A House Republican aide says no decision yet by House leaders on accepting to Senate plan
Breaking news keeps changing the market's direction, not quite safe to trade anymore

Result: Signal is abandoned after a reverse & possible downtrend because of more breaking news
S&P 500 traded sideways after that, around 1715-1721.75 as the market is uncertain of which way to go
Possible support found @ 1715 but only confirmed after 3pm & it wasn't safe to trade near end of the day especially today

Buy Intel @ 23.25- won

Previous signal:
Buy Intel @ 23.25 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Support found @ 23.25
Intel earnings report:
Actual: $0.58 EPS   Expectations: $0.53   Previous: $0.58

Result: won
Intel expired @ 23.525 at 10:30am EDT

Sell S&P 500 @ 1710- tie

Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1710 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes expiration is preferred)

Result: tie
S&P 500 expired @ 1708.00 at 9:48am EDT, entry point was 1708.07 at 9:43am
But because it was too close & also went back up too fast, we'll consider it a tie
We should've chose 2 minutes expiration for an easier win because the market was moving faster than it normally does from the beginning

S&P 500 possible resistance @ 1718

S&P 500 possible resistance @ 1718
Possible to win selling @ 1718 everytime it reaches 1718 & drop for 5 minutes expiration but too risky for now, resistance not strong or confirmed yet & more breaking news might change the market again

Earnings reports exceeded expectations

Positive news today are that most companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations
Bank of America earnings report:
Actual: $0.20 EPS   Expectations: $0.18
Yahoo earnings report:
Actual: $0.34 EPS   Expectations: $0.33

No supports or resistances found yet as the market continue to be volatile

Abandon Buy S&P 500 @ 1710

Abandon Buy S&P 500 @ 1710

Breaking news: A House Republican aide says no decision yet by House leaders on accepting to Senate plan

Breaking news keeps changing the market's direction, not quite safe to trade anymore

Buy S&P 500 @ 1710

Buy S&P 500 @ 1710 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Breaking news: Boehner has agreed to take up the Senate's plan and allow it to pass with Democrate's votes

US economic reports update

NAHB Housing Market Index
Actual: 55  Estimate: 58   Previous: 58

US economic reports 16 October 2013

10:00am
NAHB Housing Market Index
2:00pm
USD Beige Book

Buy Intel @ 23.25

Buy Intel @ 23.25 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Support found @ 23.25

Intel earnings report:
Actual: $0.58 EPS   Expectations: $0.53   Previous: $0.58

Sell S&P 500 @ 1710

Sell S&P 500 @ 1710 if it stays below, for less than 30 minutes expiration (5 minutes expiration is preferred)
1710 is too high & was resistance yesterday

Stock Market & US Political News Analysis

The stock market closed below 1700 after a very volatile trading session
Stock futures were higher, expecting a deal to be done today, but it'll probably be at the 11th hour, after stock markets closes or even delayed after the deadline if the Congress are willing to let it happen as they did with the shutdown

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett characterized it as "idiocy"
The fact is the shutdown does not benefit anyone even if they "win" this political battle, which they think they must win & stubbornly not compromising, letting something bad happen to blame the other side for it
Obama continues rejecting any changes especially to Obamacare & might only accept a deal which reopens the government & raise debt limit unconditionally
The Republicans think they must at least somehow defund Obama's signature Obamacare to undermine him

US will not default yet until around Oct 22-31 even if the debt limit isn't raised in time as the Treasury will still have about $30 billion in funds after the October 17 deadline, but US "AAA" ratings will be downgraded & US dollar will lose its credibility if it already hasn't

House Republicans postpones vote on bill to reopen government & avoid default as plans failed & they might have to surrender & agree to Senates deal
US Senates will meet at 12pm EDT today

We expect more breaking news today
Unless an agreement is made, the market will continue to be volatile
Trade less or none at all today

Fitch Ratings placed USA on Rating Watch Negative

Fitch Ratings has placed USA on Rating Watch Negative on the high risk that US authorities will not raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner before 17 Oct

Sell S&P 500 @ 1700- invalid

Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1700 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Breaking news: US Senate fiscal negotiations suspended
Possible resistance @ 1700, wait for resistance to be formed

Result: invalid
S&P 500 broke above 1700 at 2:50pm EDT, failing to form a strong resistance, but it also dropped below 1700 at the end of the day, which shows that the market is more volatile than before

Sell S&P 500 @ 1710- invalid

Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1710 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
1710 continues to be a strong resistance as S&P 500 reached 1709.5 & dropped to 1706
1706 possible but weak support, stronger support @ 1700
1707 2nd small resistance
It might try to reach 1710 again, sell if it fails to break above & drops back

Result: invalid
S&P 500 broke above 1710 at 11:22am EDT but only managed to stay above for less than 15 minutes
Trend changed after breaking news of President meeting @ 3:15pm or 1709.5 might've continued being a strong resistance which wouldn't be broken
Possible entry point would be selling after it failed to stay above 1710 but at a higher risk since it has already been broken

Buy S&P 500 @ 1706- won

Buy S&P 500 @ 1706 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Trend changed, S&P 500 rebounded @ 1701 & broke above 1706
S&P 500 might target 1710 next

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1709.12 at 10:30am EDT
Best entry point after 1706 would be @ 1707.47 at 10:20am

Trend also changed again after it reached 1709.50 at 10:32am & dropped to 1705.88, breaking slightly below 1706
Therefore, trading after the trend changed & breaking below 1706 would be invalid

Buy Coca-Cola @ 37.75- won

Previous signal:
Buy Coca-Cola @ 37.75 (safer) or 38.0 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Coca-Cola is rebounding @ 37.75 instead of 38.0, 2nd rebound might be at 38.0 if it's strong enough to go higher

Result: won
Coca-Cola expired @ 38.075 at 10:30am EDT
Best entry point after 38.0 would be @ 38.03 at 10:14am

It's also worth noting that it started to fail just after 10:30am & 38.0 turned into a resistance later
Still, it wasn't safe to sell as it reported higher profits today