S&P 500 Analysis

Not safe to trade today as we know stocks might break down anytime despite uptrend

S&P 500 broke above 1810 but started dropping very early today after breaking slightly above resistance @ 1813 at 10:36am EST
It also dropped sharply 30 minutes before it closed slightly below 1807 at 1pm EST

Watch these prices on Monday, 1810 might become an important support/resistance

Stock Market Analysis

The market will close early at 1pm EST today
Today will also be the last trading day of the month so the market might be volatile
Trading risk increased, trade less or none today
The stock market might go higher & resistances can be broken because of holiday shopping which is good for stocks but it's also too high & at risk of dropping due to profit taking

S&P Futures broke above 1807, new resistance @ 1810 (1809.65 then 1809.15), possible support @ 1807 (1806.65 then 1807.45, next possible support @ 1808.15 if it continues uptrend but not confirmed yet)

Stock market closed tomorrow

The stock market is closed tomorrow on Thanksgiving day

"Trading signals to watch" results

Still too risky to trade today with sudden sharp drops & surges, safe trading signals will have to wait until next week
Although we can still get 11 wins with high risk trading using "trading signals to watch"

Previous trading signals to watch:
Trading risk increased today as there are a lot of economic news & volatility

S&P Futures rebounding @ 1801.45, building more support @ 1801.65, going up higher but support @ 1801.95 is weak as it dropped to 1801.65 again, another new possible weak support @ 1803
Look to buy @ 1801.45-1801.95 or 1803 (as low as possible, buying higher equals higher risk) if it stays above & goes higher
Temporary resistance @ 1805 can be broken easily but still possible to profit from it before it's broken
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1805 if it stays below & drops (high risk)

Look to sell S&P 500 near end of day for 4pm EST expiration this week (high risk), especially on Friday which is the end of day, week & month at the same time
Watch S&P 500 @ 1800 (possible support), 1805 (possible turning point) & 1808 (possible resistance) again tomorrow plus 1803 as new possible support
S&P 500 closed slightly below 1803 today & yesterday but used 1803 as support at 12pm EST to shoot up to 1807

All for 30 minutes expiration or less, trading during news will also increase risk even more

Results:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1803- 2 wins
S&P Futures dropped slightly below 1803 at 8:36 am EST & expired @ 1804.15 at 9am EST (Time shown for S&P Futures is EST+13hours)
It dropped again to 1802.95 at 9:37am EST & reached 1807 (S&P 500's 1808) then dropped to expire @ 1806.15 at 10am EST

Sell S&P Futures @ 1805- 1 win
After S&P Futures dropped from 1807, it was stucked around 1804.45-1805
A safer trade would be after it dropped below 1804.45 for it to expire @ 1802 at 1pm EST

Buy S&P Futures @ 1801.45-1801.95- 1 win
S&P Futures dropped to 1801.45 & went up to expire @ 1803 at 1:30pm EST

Sell S&P 500 @ 1808 resistance- 3 wins
S&P 500 kept breaking slightly above 1808, trying to stay above it but failed & dropped each time
1st, S&P 500 reached 1808.18 at 9:56am EST & dropped to expire @ 1806.62 at 10:30am EST
2nd, S&P 500 reached 1808.06 at 10:42am EST & dropped to expire @ 1806.86 at 11am EST
3rd, S&P 500 stayed around 1808.14 for a while & finally dropped to expire @ 1806.86 at 12am EST
It also dropped more until 1803 then dropped again @ 1808.00 2 minutes before the market closed but it was already too late

Buy/Sell S&P 500 @ 1805 turning point- 2 wins
It was also possible to sell @ 1805 when it stayed below & drop more and buy @ 1805 when it stayed above & go higher
S&P 500 dropped from 1804.83 at 12:56pm EST to expire @ 1803.91 at 1:30pm EST
S&P 500 then broke & stayed above 1805 & started to go up higher from 1805.29 at 2:28pm EST to expire @ 1807.20 at 3pm EST

Buy S&P 500 @ 1803 new possible support- 1 win
S&P 500 dropped slightly below 1803 at 1:20pm EST but rebounded & went higher to expire @ 1803.91 at 1:30pm EST or @ 1804.77 at 2pm EST
It also went higher to reach 1808 near end of the day

Sell S&P 500 near end of day for 4pm EST expiration (high risk)- 1 win at higher risk
Possibility of S&P 500 dropping again at the end of the day was reduced but it was still possible
S&P 500 already dropped sharply from 1808 10 minutes before 12pm EST today
It also rebounded @ 1803, hesitated just below turning point @ 1805, broke above to go higher & reached 1808 again to expire @ 1807.23
S&P 500 did not have enough time to drop more as the market closed
(S&P Futures dropped more after the market closed)
Highest chance of winning is to sell as close as possible to 1808 as resistance is still there

US economic reports update (2)

9:45am
Chicago PMI        
Actual: 63.0    Estimate: 60.6    Previous: 65.9         
9:55am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment        
Actual: 75.1    Estimate: 73.1    Previous: 72.0
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations        
Actual: 2.9%         3.1%         
10:00am
CB Leading Index m/m        
Actual: 0.2%    Estimate: 0.1%    Previous: 0.7%

US economic reports update

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m        
Actual: -0.1%    Estimate: 0.5%    Previous: -0.2%
Durable Goods Orders m/m        
Actual: -2.0%    Estimate: -1.5%    Estimate: 3.8%Unemployment Claims        
Actual: 316K    Estimate: 331K    Estimate: 326K

Trading signals to watch

Trading risk increased today as there are a lot of economic news & volatility

S&P Futures rebounding @ 1801.45, building more support @ 1801.65, going up higher but support @ 1801.95 is weak as it dropped to 1801.65 again, another new possible weak support @ 1803
Look to buy @ 1801.45-1801.95 or 1803 (as low as possible, buying higher equals higher risk) if it stays above & goes higher
Temporary resistance @ 1805 can be broken easily but still possible to profit from it before it's broken
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1805 if it stays below & drops (high risk)

All for 30 minutes expiration or less, trading during news will also increase risk even more

US economic reports 27 November 2013

8:30am
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders m/m

9:45am
Chicago PMI
9:55am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

10:00am
CB Leading Index m/m

Too risky to trade today / "Trading Signals to watch" results

Stocks are weak yet still trying to stay above 1805 & 1808
Supports & resistances are broken
S&P Futures broke below 1800 then above 1805
Not quite safe to trade today although you could still trade at a higher risk & get a few wins using our "trading signals to watch" we mentioned earlier
"Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1801.45 if it rebounds & stays above
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1805 or 1804 (higher risk but it's a new temporary resistance) if it fails & drops again
All for 30 minutes expiration
Watch S&P 500 @ 1800 (possible support), 1805 (possible turning point) & 1808 (possible resistance)"

S&P Futures rebounded @ 1801.45 at 9:28am EST & shot up to 1804 at 9:36am EST then trend changed & it dropped to expire @ 1802.45 at 10:00am EST (Time shown below is EST+13hours)
Buying @ 1801.45 & selling @ 1804 will both provide a win at the same time but it was risky as it suddenly dropped to 1799.45 5 minutes later yet went higher
It also traded around 1801.65-1803.65 before breaking above 1805 & dropped from 1806.65 (S&P 500's 1808)

S&P 500 rebounded @ 1800.87 to expire @ 1804.51 at 10:30am EST
It also dropped from 1805.14 (1805 slightly broken) to expire @ 1803.27 at 12pm EST
Then S&P 500 went back up to break 1805 & reach 1808 (1808 also slightly broken)
It finally failed to stay above 1808 & dropped sharply again to close @ 1802.76, confirming more profit taking at the end of day this week

Our "trading signals to watch" showed that it's still possible to win even in high risk situations
Yesterday's analysis of "Watch S&P 500 @ 1800 (possible support), 1805 (possible turning point) & 1808 (possible resistance)" was quite accurate although they're slightly broken
But we still need to be very cautious because the market showed that it's dangerous with sudden sharp drops & surges today

Look to sell S&P 500 near end of day for 4pm EST expiration this week (high risk), especially on Friday which is the end of day, week & month at the same time
Watch S&P 500 @ 1800 (possible support), 1805 (possible turning point) & 1808 (possible resistance) again tomorrow plus 1803 as new possible support
S&P 500 closed slightly below 1803 today & yesterday but used 1803 as support at 12pm EST to shoot up to 1807

US economic reports update (CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Manufacturing Index)

CB Consumer Confidence       
Actual: 70.4    Estimate: 72.2    Previous: 71.2
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Actual: 13    Estimate: 3    Previous: 1        

US economic reports update

8:30am
Building Permits (Sep Data)       
Actual: 0.97M    Estimate: 0.94M    Previous: 0.93M
Building Permits
Actual: 1.03M    Estimate: 0.94M    Previous: 0.97M         

9:00am
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y        
Actual: 13.3%    Estimate: 13.0%    Previous: 12.8%
HPI m/m        
Actual: 0.3%    Estimate: 0.5%    Previous: 0.3%

S&P Futures Analysis

S&P Futures tried to rebound after-market but failed to stay above 1805 & dropped again
It then found support @ 1801.45 & is trying to reach 1805 again, it will also be affected by economic news later
Selling @ 1805 will be at a higher risk this time as it's trying very hard to break & stay above it
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1801.45 if it rebounds & stays above
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1805 or 1804 (higher risk but it's a new temporary resistance) if it fails & drops again
All for 30 minutes expiration

US economic data 26 November 2013

8:30am
Building Permits
Building Permits (Sep Data)

9:00am
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
HPI m/m

10:00am
CB Consumer Confidence
Richmond Manufacturing Index

Buy S&P 500 @ 1805- 2 wins

Previous signal:
Breaking news: Financial data firm Markit said that US private sector activity rebounded in November after slowing in October, while new orders grew at their fastest pace since April 2012

Trend changed, S&P 500 broke above 1805 again (previous signal "Sell S&P 500 @ 1805" is invalid), possible to rebound & go higher on this news

Buy S&P 500 @ 1805 or 1806 (higher risk) if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Result:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1805- 2 wins
S&P 500 rebounded @ 1805.11 & expired @ 1806.13 at 11:30am EST
It also rebounded again @ 1805.06 & expired @ 1805.47 at 1:30pm EST
It finally reached 1805.38 but dropped straight below 1805 after 3pm EST, which made it invalid to trade

The sharp drop was most probably due to profit taking at the end of the day & it signaled more volatility & possible profit taking this week
Trading risk increased for this week
Try to avoid trading near end of day as always to reduce your risk due to market volatility

Sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1805 or 1808- 3 wins, 1 loss, 2 invalids

Previous signals:
High risk trades:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1805 (higher risk) or 1808 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P Futures @ 1805 (higher risk) or 1808 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures dropped below possible support & looks weak at the beginning
S&P 500 dropped @ 1808, following S&P Futures
Next possible support @ S&P 500's 1804.76/1805 also broken
New resistance @ S&P Future's 1805, S&P 500 might follow S&P Futures again
Economic data worse than expected
Turning point @ S&P 500's 1805

Results:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1805- invalid (Trend changed & S&P 500 broke above 1805)
Although it dropped @ 1805 later after 3pm EST, the drop was too sharp & risky to trade, especially near end of day which has increased volatility
There also wasn't enough time to trade it as it dropped too fast, so we won't count that as a win

Sell S&P 500 @ 1808- won
S&P 500 reached 1807.44 & dropped to 1806.89 at 2:30pm EST
It also continued dropping but rebounded @ 1800.78 & closed @ 1802.48
Watch S&P 500 @ 1800 (possible support), 1805 (possible turning point) & 1808 (possible resistance) tomorrow

Sell S&P Futures @ 1805- 2 wins, 1 loss
S&P Futures hit 1805 & dropped to 1804.15 at 12pm EST (Time shown below is EST+13hours)
It also hit 1805 & drop again to 1803.55 at 1pm EST
It finally failed the 3rd time it hit 1805 as it went up to reach 1805.15 @ 2pm EST & stayed above 1805 weakly for less than 1 hour before dropping below 1800

Sell S&P Futures @ 1808- invalid (S&P Futures did not reach 1808 anymore)

Buy S&P 500 @ 1805

Breaking news: Financial data firm Markit said that US private sector activity rebounded in November after slowing in October, while new orders grew at their fastest pace since April 2012

Trend changed, S&P 500 broke above 1805 again (previous signal "Sell S&P 500 @ 1805" is invalid), possible to rebound & go higher on this news

Buy S&P 500 @ 1805 or 1806 (higher risk) if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1805 or 1808

High risk trades:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1805 (higher risk) or 1808 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P Futures @ 1805 (higher risk) or 1808 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures dropped below possible support & looks weak at the beginning
S&P 500 dropped @ 1808, following S&P Futures
Next possible support @ S&P 500's 1804.76/1805 also broken
New resistance @ S&P Future's 1805, S&P 500 might follow S&P Futures again
Economic data worse than expected
Turning point @ S&P 500's 1805

US economic reports update

Pending Home Sales m/m        
Actual: -0.6%    Estimate: 2.2%    Previous: -5.6%

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Futures jumped on the deal to curb Iran's nuclear program which reduced political tensions & oil prices
Possible support @ 1805.45, possible resistance @ 1808, 1809
Economic report Pending Home Sales @ 10am EST

Stocks continue to have strong momentum but might be too high
Trading will  be light & have increased volatility this week
Trade less & cautiously

Watch Google on Monday

We also watched Google but support is weak & broken today
However, it still managed to close above 1030 at the end of the day
Look to buy Google @ 1030 on Monday if it strengthens, stays above & go higher
Look to sell Google @ 1036, 1040 on Monday if it stays below & drop further
All for 30 minutes expiration

Possible resistances @ 1036 (which was strongest on Friday), 1040 (possible strongest resistance on Monday if it breaks above 1036)
Minor resistances @ 1034, 1032

Sell S&P Futures @ 1800- abandoned / win at higher risk

Previous signal:
High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1800 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P Futures resistance @ 1800 not confirmed, possible rebound & support @ 1798
Trend for today is up, but possible profit taking @ 1800 because it's too high, so it should drop @ 1800 at least temporarily

Update:
S&P 500 building support @ 1801
S&P Futures possible resistance still @ 1800 but slightly broken
Abandon "Sell S&P Futures @ 1800" or trade it at a higher risk

Result: Abandoned but barely won at a higher risk
S&P Futures expired @ 1799.65 at 12:30am EST (Time shown below is EST+13hours)
(We'll not count this as a win because we're looking for safe & easy wins but this trade was too risky)

We saw that S&P 500 is building support @ 1801 & has the potential to go higher later
S&P Futures' profit taking @ 1800 was also not strong enough even if it was only temporary as it did not drop further enough & resistance @ 1800 was broken

S&P Futures was then stucked around 1799.65-1799.95 for a while, then drop below to 1798.45 (S&P 500's 1799.93) & rebounded back up to close @ 1803.15 (S&P 500 @ 1804.76)
This showed strong momentum for stocks even after 1800, although support @ 1800 is slightly broken

S&P Futures dropped after the market closed, watch S&P Futures @ 1803 & S&P 500 @ 1805 for possible resistances
Watch for possible support & rebound @ S&P 500's 1800 again next Monday

Buy Apple @ 521- invalid

High risk trade:
Buy Apple @ 521 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Target support @ 520 but was broken, new possible support @ 521, resistance @ 522

Result: invalid
After seeing Apple rebounding 3 times @ 521, we decided to take a higher risk to buy Apple @ 521 instead of 520
But Apple failed our last test to stay above 521 & drop straight below to 520.40 after our signal @ 10:33am EST
Therefore signal is invalid
521 & 520 also turned into resistance as Apple dropped further, showing that support @ 520 is weak

Buy S&P Futures @ 1795- won

High risk trade:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1795 or 1796 (higher risk) if it stays above, for less than 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures broke above new temporary resistance @ 1795 which might become the turning point to decide if stocks go up or down for the rest of the day

Risks: more resistances @ 1796-1800 but stocks are still trying to go higher

Result: won
After breaking above 1795, stocks went up for the rest of the day as we expected
S&P Futures then dropped slightly below 1796 & went higher to expire @ 1797.15 at 11am EST 22 November 2013 (Time shown below is EST+13hours)

Abandon "Sell S&P Futures @ 1800" or trade at higher risk

S&P 500 building support @ 1801
S&P Futures possible resistance still @ 1800 but slightly broken
Abandon "Sell S&P Futures @ 1800" or trade it at a higher risk

Sell S&P Futures @ 1800

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1800 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P Futures resistance @ 1800 not confirmed, possible rebound & support @ 1798
Trend for today is up, but possible profit taking @ 1800 because it's too high, so it should drop @ 1800 at least temporarily

Buy Apple @ 521

High risk trade:
Buy Apple @ 521 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Risk: Target support @ 520 but was broken, new possible support @ 521, resistance @ 522

Buy S&P Futures @ 1795

High risk trade:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1795 or 1796 (higher risk) if it stays above, for less than 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures broke above new temporary resistance @ 1795 which might become the turning point to decide if stocks go up or down for the rest of the day

Risks: more resistances @ 1796-1800 but stocks are still trying to go higher

S&P Futures new temporary resistance @ 1795

S&P Futures new temporary resistance @ 1795 & might become the turning point to decide if stocks go up or down for the rest of the day

US economic reports update

JOLTS Job Openings        
Actual: 3.91M    Estimate: 3.89M    Previous: 3.88M    

Trading signals to watch

Stock Futures are flat but trying to go higher, targeting 1800
S&P Futures support @ 1792, 1792.65, possible temporary resistance @ 1796 (weak), stronger resistance @ 1800, (S&P 500) @ 1802
Look to buy @ supports if it stays above & go higher, sell @ resistances if it stays below & drops further, all for 30 minutes expiration
Not much economic news to guide stocks today, so the market might be mixed

Apple was awarded $290 million in a retrial against Samsung
Apple's possible support @ 520 although it might already be too high as it jumped from 514 to 521 yesterday
It's also slightly dropping from 521.14 to 521.00 (8am EST)  during pre-market, so we would be cautious & wait for more confirmation as traders might take profit & sell the news
End of day/week will also increase chances of profit taking
Look to buy Apple @ 520 if support is strengthened, staying above it & go higher, for 30 minutes expiration

US economic events 22 November 2013

8:40am
FOMC Member George Speaks
10:00am
JOLTS Job Openings

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- 2 wins, Sell S&P 500 @ 1790- invalid & abandoned

Previous signals:
High risk trades:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790 if it fails to break or stay above & drops, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Stocks are going back up as S&P 500 is reaching 1790
Resistance @ 1790 slightly broken, stocks are still in uptrend but hesitating @ 1790, staying just below it

Risks: S&P 500 might be too high & only stay above temporarily if support is weak, more possible resistances @ 1792, 1794, 1796, choose a shorter expiration
S&P 500 might also drop below support then go higher if it follows previous market pattern again

Update:
Breaking news: Senate Banking Committee votes 14-8 in favour of Janet Yellen nomination, stocks went higher & should stay above 1790

"Buy S&P 500 @ 1790" is already a win
S&P 500 should not drop below 1790 anymore, but just in case it does, abandon "Sell S&P 500 @ 1790" as it might just drop below then go higher again, unless there's another negative news for stocks

Result: Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- 2 wins
S&P 500 broke above 1790 & went higher, breaking above small resistance @ 1792 easily & expired @ 1792.51 at 11am EST
It started dropping from 1794 at 10:52am, which was why we recommended a shorter expiration for a safer trade
Resistance @ 1794 was stronger & was only broken after 1:42pm EST
Support @ 1790 was strengthened after the breaking news so it did not stay above temporarily only but for the rest of the day

2nd chance to buy S&P 500 was at 1pm EST when it dropped to its lowest @ 1790.74 & went up higher to expire @ 1792.95 at 1:30pm EST
It also broke above 1794 resistance later & 1794 turned into support after that
Resistance @ 1796 was quite weak as it was broken several times, but S&P 500 was unable to stay above it today & dropped to close @ 1795.85

Sell S&P 500 @ 1790- invalid & abandoned
S&P 500 did not drop below 1790 anymore & was invalid as we expected
But as a precautionary measure, we recommended to abandon the signal just in case it's oversold & drop below then go higher again

Sell S&P Futures @ 1784-1786- won

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1784 (higher risk) -1786 (stronger resistance) if it stays below & is dropping, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Economic data including Unemployment Claims were better than expected, which increases chances of tapering

Result: won
S&P Futures started dropping from 1786 even before economic data @ 8:30am EST, continued dropping from 1785 @ 8:30am EST, then stayed below 1784 & expired @ 1783.2527 at 9am EST (14:00 GMT)

Abandon "Sell S&P 500 @ 1790"

Breaking news: Senate Banking Committee votes 14-8 in favour of Janet Yellen nomination, stocks went higher & should stay above 1790

"Buy S&P 500 @ 1790" is already a win
S&P 500 should not drop below 1790 anymore, but just in case it does, abandon "Sell S&P 500 @ 1790" as it might just drop below then go higher again, unless there's another negative news for stocks

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790, Sell S&P 500 @ 1790

High risk trades:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790 if it fails to break or stay above & drops, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Stocks are going back up as S&P 500 is reaching 1790
Resistance @ 1790 slightly broken, stocks are still in uptrend but hesitating @ 1790, staying just below it

Risks: S&P 500 might be too high & only stay above temporarily if support is weak, more possible resistances @ 1792, 1794, 1796, choose a shorter expiration
S&P 500 might also drop below support then go higher if it follows previous market pattern again

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index update

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Actual: 6.5   Estimate: 15.8   Previous: 19.8

Flash Manufacturing PMI update

Flash Manufacturing PMI        
Actual: 54.3    Estimate: 52.6    Previous: 51.8

Sell S&P Futures @ 1784-1786

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1784 (higher risk) -1786 (stronger resistance) if it stays below & is dropping, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Economic data including Unemployment Claims were better than expected, which increases chances of tapering

US economic reports update

PPI m/m
Actual: -0.2%    Estimate: -0.2%    Previous: -0.1%
Unemployment Claims       
Actual: 323K    Estimate: 333K    Previous: 339K
Core PPI m/m       
Actual: 0.2%    Estimate: 0.1%    Previous: 0.1%    

Stock Market Analysis

Today's focus will be on US economic data as the Fed yesterday said that they might start tapering in coming months if there's better economic data, especially on the job market, so Unemployment Claims will have the highest impact
The Senate Banking Committee is planning to vote on President Obama's nomination of Yellen

Stocks are rebounding as we expected although economic data later might affect the rebound
S&P Futures up from 1780 to 1784 (8am EST)
Yahoo up from 35.62 to 36.1 (8am EST)
JPM up from 56.1 to 56.34 (8am EST)

Support & resistance not confirmed for S&P Futures to trade on economic data @ 8:30am EST as they're not strong enough, so it would be risky to trade
Possible supports @ 1780, 1782
Possible resistances @ 1784-1786

US economic events 21 November 2013

8:30am
PPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
Core PPI m/m

9:00am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45am
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
10:00am
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
1:00pm
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Stock Prices to watch tomorrow

Stocks are weak for now, but they showed that there's still some strength & support left at their closing price, watch for possible rebound tomorrow
Look to buy @ possible supports: JPM @ 56.0, Yahoo @ 35.0-35.5, S&P 500 @ 1780
Although a better than expected unemployment claims (which increases chances of tapering soon) might further weaken stocks & turn them into resistances

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- won, Sell S&P 500 @ 1796- invalid

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Sell S&P 500 @ 1796 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P 500 might break & stay above temporarily, then drop (Previous market pattern)
Support @ 1790 is weak

S&P 500 update:
S&P 500 possible minor resistance @ 1792, which is S&P Futures' 1790
S&P 500's weak support still @ 1790, stronger support @ 1788

Results: Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- won
S&P 500 expired @ 1791.97 at 11:30am EST

Sell S&P 500 @ 1796- invalid
S&P 500 failed to reach 1796 again because of minor resistance @ 1792
S&P 500's weak support still @ 1790 & unbroken since 10:44am EST after it managed to stay above
So S&P 500 traded sideways around 1790-1792 for quite a while, kept trying to stay above 1792 but failed & finally dropped below weak support 1790, turning it into resistance
2nd resistance @ 1788
Look to sell S&P 500 if it reaches 1788 or 1790 & drop again tomorrow

Buy JPM @ 56.0- won, Buy Yahoo @ 35.0- won

Buy JPM @ 56.0 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Yahoo @ 35.0 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Results: Buy JPM @ 56.0- won
JPM reached 56.02 at 9:40am EST & expired @ 56.06 at 10am EST
Although support was broken later due to worse than expected economic data @ 10am EST, we managed to win before it dropped
It also managed to close above 56.0 at the end of the day

Buy Yahoo @ 35.0- won
Yahoo reached its lowest @ 35.23 at 10:32am EST & expired @ 35.557 at 11am EST, even breaking above a minor resistance & managed to stay slightly above 36.0 for a while, only started to drop when FOMC Meeting Minutes was near
It later dropped to 35.3 but still managed to close @ 35.62, above 35.5 previous minor resistance

Sell S&P Futures @ 1790- won, Buy S&P Futures @ 1790- won

High risk trades:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 if it fails to break or stay above & drop, for 5 minutes expiration (avoid 10am EST expiration)
Buy S&P Futures @ 1790 if it stays above & continues uptrend, for 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P Futures might break & stay above temporarily, then drop (Previous market pattern)

Result:  Sell S&P Futures @ 1790- won
S&P Futures failed to break above 1790 & dropped, expiring at its lowest during our time frame @ 1786.375 at 9:55am EST (14:55 GMT)

Buy S&P Futures @ 1790- won
S&P Futures broke & stayed above 1790 temporarily, expiring @ 1791.0129 at 10:30am EST (15:30 GMT)

FOMC Meeting Minutes update

The Fed said that they might start tapering in coming months if there's better economic data, which is basically the same thing repeated over & over again
But investors panicked, focusing on the words "coming months" which might mean very soon, forgetting that "the Fed plans to start tapering only after strong evidence of restored health to the job market" as mentioned by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

(FOMC Meeting Minutes update is delayed until the market closed for a bigger picture of the stock market)

Stocks dropped from 1790 to 1777 & rebounded to close @ 1781.37
Watch S&P 500 @ 1780 & 1790 tomorrow

S&P 500 update

S&P 500 possible minor resistance @ 1792, which is S&P Futures' 1790
S&P 500's weak support still @ 1790, stronger support @ 1788

Fed's Bullard said that there's possible tapering in December

Stocks fluctuated due to comments by Fed's Bullard
"Jobs picture looking better"
"Strong employment report in December would increase prospects for a December taper"

S&P 500 dropped from 1796 to 1789 & rebounding above 1790 now

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790, Sell S&P 500 @ 1796

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Sell S&P 500 @ 1796 if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P 500 might break & stay above temporarily, then drop (Previous market pattern)
Support @ 1790 is weak

Buy S&P 500 around 9:49am EST for 10am EST expiration- won

We'll test another high risk speculative trade following previous market pattern
Buy S&P 500 around 9:49am EST for 10am EST expiration

Previous market pattern: S&P 500 went up in the beginning then drop below support & went up again until 10am EST

Result: won
S&P 500 reached around 1790 at 9:49am EST, dropped sharply below support to 1788.25 at 9:56am EST & went up again to reach 1790.39 at 10am EST
Note: Although we managed to win by identifying a market pattern, the risk was too high, we'll adjust our timing to 5 minutes before expiration next time to be safer
(But some brokers might not allow trading less than 10 minutes before expiration, which was the reason we choose 9:49am EST today)

US economic reports update (Home Sales & Business Inventories)

10:00am
Existing Home Sales
Actual: 5.12M    Estimate: 5.17M    Previous: 5.29M
Business Inventories m/m (higher = worse)
Actual: 0.6%    Estimate: 0.3%    Previous: 0.4%

Buy S&P 500 @ 9:49am EST for 10am EST expiration

We'll test another high risk speculative trade following previous market pattern
Buy S&P 500 around 9:49am EST for 10am EST expiration

Previous market pattern: S&P 500 went up in the beginning then drop below support & went up again until 10am EST

Buy JPM @ 56.0, Buy Yahoo @ 35.0

Buy JPM @ 56.0 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
JPMorgan agreed to a $13 billion mortgage settlement
JPMorgan said it has set aside all the funds it needs to cover the settlement, meaning the deal will have no impact on its earnings

Buy Yahoo @ 35.0 if it stays above, for 30 minutes expiration
Yahoo raised share buyback by $5 billion

Sell S&P Futures @ 1790, Buy S&P Futures @ 1790

High risk trades:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 if it fails to break or stay above & drop, for 5 minutes expiration (avoid 10am EST expiration)
Buy S&P Futures @ 1790 if it stays above & continues uptrend, for 30 minutes expiration

Risks: S&P Futures might break & stay above temporarily, then drop (Previous market pattern)

Stock Market Analysis

There will be a lot of US economic data today plus speeches & FOMC meeting minutes which will increase volatility
Trading risk increased today

Yesterday @ 6pm EST, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke agreed with Yellen to do all they can to promote robust recovery & said that the Fed plans to start tapering only after strong evidence of restored health to the job market
S&P Futures @ 1784.65 when stock market closed
S&P Futures jumped to 1790 but still failed to stay above & dropped sharply again to 1784.45

Stock Futures show that market is mixed & slightly down earlier, S&P Futures dropped from 1790 but is rebounding @ 1782.65 & targeting 1790 again as most US economic data @ 8:30am EST were better than expected
Resistance @ 1790 is strong but might be broken above because of new economic data
It would also be quite risky to buy as it might stay above for a while & drop sharply again just like yesterday

Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1790 if it fails to break or stay above & drops
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1790 if it stays above & continues uptrend

US economic reports update (CPI & Retail Sales)

Core CPI m/m
Actual: 0.1%    Estimate: 0.1%    Previous: 0.1%             
Core Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.2%    Estimate: 0.1%    Previous: 0.3%
Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.4%    Estimate: 0.1%    Previous: 0.0%
CPI m/m        
Actual: -0.1%    Estimate: 0.0%    Previous: 0.2%

US economic events 20 November 2013

8:30am
Core CPI m/m
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
CPI m/m

10:00am
Existing Home Sales
Business Inventories m/m
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

12:10pm
FOMC Member Bullard Speak
2:00pm
FOMC Meeting Minutes

Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- invalid/ win at higher risk, Sell S&P 500 @ 1794- won

High risk trades:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1794 or slightly lower (above 1790) if it continues downtrend & stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it rebounds & stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Resistance @ 1794, possible support @ 1790

Results:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1790- invalid/ win at higher risk
Sell S&P 500 @ 1794- won

Although possible support @ 1790 was broken, which showed that it's not confirmed as a strong support, it would still be a short term win after it went back up above 1790 at 12pm EST & expired @ 1793.5 at 12:30pm EST

Resistance @ 1794 wasn't broken, it only reached 1793.63 at 12:26pm EST & dropped to expire @ 1790.60 at 1:00pm EST, which should be an easy win as support was weakened & resistance strengthened, showing that it's more likely to go down

S&P 500 also rebounded @ 1785 & tried to stay above 1790 near end of day but failed & dropped again from 1790
Watch S&P 500 @ 1790 for possible resistance if stocks continue to be weak (or support if stocks strengthen) tomorrow
Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech @ 7pm EST later today might affect the stock market too

Sell S&P 500 @ 1794, Buy S&P 500 @ 1790

High risk trades:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1794 or slightly lower (above 1790) if it continues downtrend & stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Buy S&P 500 @ 1790 if it rebounds & stays above, for 30 minutes expiration

Resistance @ 1794, possible support @ 1790

Stock Market Analysis

The stock market dropped on fear that "market could easily have a big drop" as commented by billionaire investor Carl Icahn yesterday
The stock market should rebound today if fear dissipates but stock futures dropped again
Asset management firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO) & Company said that S&P 500 is 75% overvalued
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) lowered its growth forecast of the global economy to 3.6% from 4%
S&P Futures rebounded earlier but failed to stay above 1790 & dropped to 1785, smaller resistance @ 1787

Today's focus will be on speeches which might either encourage or discourage investors to buy more stocks as investors sold stocks in fear & are waiting for more guidance
Trading risk increased due to uncertainty of what the speakers might say that will increase volatility
Trade less (or none) & cautiously today

US economic reports update

Employment Cost Index q/q
Actual: 0.4%    Estimate: 0.5%    Previous: 0.5%

US economic events 19 November 2013

8:30am
Employment Cost Index q/q
8:45am
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
10:00am
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
2:15pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
3:00pm
President Obama Speaks

7:00pm
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

S&P 500 Analysis

The stock market continued to drop further after we mentioned that it's not safe to trade anymore
S&P 500 dropped from 1800.54, breaking below weak supports & possible rebounds @ 1798, 1796, 1790, went back up above 1790, dropped again & finally closed above 1790 @ 1791.55

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn also said: "very cautious on equities, market could easily have a big drop"
Therefore we should continue to trade more cautiously as the market becomes more & more unstable
Watch S&P 500 @ 1790 tomorrow

Not safe to trade anymore

Stocks dropped sharply just after we won as S&P 500 broke above 1800
So it wouldn't be quite safe to trade anymore as there's still a lot of profit taking & resistance @ 1800
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1800 until it breaks & stays above it for a long time (which would be unlikely today)

Buy S&P 500 @ 1798- won

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1798 or slightly higher (below 1800) at a higher risk for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above

FOMC's Dudley: Not yet enough growth momentum to give Fed confidence in labor market outlook

Possible resistance @ 1800, 1801 but also possible to break above later

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1800.48 at 2:30pm EST
Best entry point @ 1799.05 at 2pm EST (which is slightly higher than 1798 but still below 1800) after support @ 1798 was confirmed as it did not go lower anymore
It also broke above resistance @ 1800 as we expected

Buy S&P 500 @ 1798

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1798 or slightly higher (below 1800) at a higher risk for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above

FOMC's Dudley: Not yet enough growth momentum to give Fed confidence in labor market outlook

Possible resistance @ 1800, 1801 but also possible to break above later

US economic reports update

NAHB Housing Market Index
Actual: 54    Estimate: 56    Previous: 55

Trading risk increased for today

S&P 500 opened @ 1801, went up to 1802 then broke below 1800, support is weakened
Trading risk increased for today
S&P Futures possible support & rebound @ 1795.65

Stocks to watch

Boeing launched 777X with deals worth $95 billion
Look to buy Boeing @ 140

JPMorgan reached a $4.5 billion settlement in disputes
Look to buy JPM @ 55.0

Traders & investors were able to legally sell Twitter stock since last Friday
But most of Twitter's stock went to big buy & hold mutual funds & most stocks went higher on Friday therefore not safe to trade yet
Friday's chart showed that support @ 44.0 is broken & turned into resistance as it stayed below 44.0 most of the time & closed @ 43.98
Look to sell Twitter @ 44.0

Risk: Selling Twitter will be at a higher risk if stocks goes up today but Twitter also dropped when stocks went up on Friday

TIC Long-Term Purchases update

TIC Long-Term Purchases
Actual: 25.5B    Estimate: 21.3B    Previous: -9.8B

Stock Market Analysis

Stocks are too high yet still possible to go even higher due to Yellen's support of QE
S&P 500 only dropped during midday last Friday but formed support @ 1791.5 & went higher to reach 1798.18
Probability of stocks dropping due to profit taking is reduced as stocks went higher at the end of the day/week
S&P 500 possible support/resistance @ 1800
US economic data is better than expected today so stocks should continue to go higher
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1800 or higher

US economic reports 18 November 2013

9:00am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
10:00am
NAHB Housing Market Index

2:15pm
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Sell S&P Futures @ 1790- won

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 again if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures resistance @ 1792 strengthened after it dropped from 1792 again
Possible rebound @ 1788 as it also rebounded @ 1788 earlier although it's weaker now
2nd possible resistance @ 1790

Risk: It might try to reach stronger resistance @ 1792 again, 1790 is a smaller resistance

Result: won
S&P Futures expired @ 1788.65 at 1pm EST
Time shown below is 2am GMT+8 (EST+13)

Sell S&P Futures @ 1790

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 again if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration

S&P Futures resistance @ 1792 strengthened after it dropped from 1792 again
Possible rebound @ 1788 as it also rebounded @ 1788 earlier although it's weaker now
2nd possible resistance @ 1790

Risk: It might try to reach stronger resistance @ 1792 again, 1790 is a smaller resistance

Sell S&P Futures @ 1792- won

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1792 or 1790 (higher risk) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Most US economic data were worse than expected
Earlier we mentioned S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1792, S&P Futures dropped from 1792 again

Result: won
S&P Futures expired @ 1788.65 at 12pm EST
Time shown below is 1am GMT+8 (EST+13)

Buy Exxon Mobil @ 94.0- won

Buy Exxon Mobil @ 94.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Possible support around 94.0

Result: won
Exxon Mobil expired @ 94.17 at 12pm EST
Exxon Mobil dropped to 94.05 & rebounded higher while S&P 500 dropped more, showing that support @ 94.0 is quite strong at that moment

Sell S&P Futures @ 1792

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1792 or 1790 (higher risk) if it stays below, for 30 minutes expiration
Most US economic data were worse than expected
Earlier we mentioned S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1792, S&P Futures dropped from 1792 again

Buy Exxon Mobil @ 94.0

Buy Exxon Mobil @ 94.0 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above

Possible support around 94.0

Wholesale Inventories update

Wholesale Inventories m/m
Actual: 0.4%    Estimate: 0.5%    Previous: 0.5%

Stocks to watch

S&P 500 reached another record high of 1790 yesterday
Stocks are too high without strong supports & might drop due to profit taking especially at end of day/week
Trading will be at a higher risk today
Watch S&P 500 @ 1790 for possible support/resistance
S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1792, 1790

Billionaire Buffett's Berkshire bought another $3.45 billion in Exxon Mobil stock
Stock jumped from 93.22 to 94.39
Look to buy Exxon Mobil, no supports found yet

US economic reports update

Empire State Manufacturing Index
Actual: -2.2     Estimate: 5.2     Previous: 1.5
Import Prices m/m
Actual: -0.7%     Estimate: -0.4%     Previous: 0.1%
Capacity Utilization Rate
Actual: 78.1%     Estimate: 78.3%     Previous: 78.3%
Industrial Production m/m
Actual: -0.1%     Estimate: 0.1%     Previous: 0.6%

US economic reports 15 November 2013

8:30am
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Import Prices m/m
9:15am
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
10:00am
Wholesale Inventories m/m

Buy S&P Futures @ 1780- invalid/ win at higher risk, Sell S&P Futures @ 1785- invalid, Buy S&P Futures for 10am EST expiration- invalid/ win at higher risk

Previous signals:
Medium risk trades:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1780 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays above
Sell S&P Futures @ 1785 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays below
S&P Futures rebounded @ possible support 1780 (not confirmed, wait for it to retest 1780 to be safer), current resistance @ 1785 but possible to break above after the market opens @ 9:30am EST

Risk: All US economic data are worse than expected & stocks might be mixed, avoid trading if support/resistance is broken to be safer although current market pattern is to break below support & go higher

Chart shows possible support @ 1780, resistance @ 1785

High risk speculative trade: (without specific price target)
Buy S&P Futures if it goes up after 9:30am EST for 10am EST expiration when Fed Chairperson-Designate Yellen is due to testify
Stocks should go higher ahead of it
Avoid buying if it S&P Futures nears & stays below 1785, wait for it to break & stay above if that's the case


Results:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1780- invalid/ win at higher risk
Buy S&P Futures for 10am EST expiration- invalid/ win at higher risk
S&P Futures went down & broke below 1780 after 9:30am EST, therefore signals are invalid
But it's still possible to win if u buy between 1780-1780.625 or below at a higher risk for it to expire around 1780.625 at 10am EST
Market movement was disrupted because all US economic data were worse than expected although stocks still went higher from less than 10 minutes before 10am EST

Sell S&P Futures @ 1785- invalid
S&P Futures stayed too low & only broke above 1785 after Yellen's statement
S&P 500 rebounded around 1780 but no strong supports found for safer trades
The market went up because of Yellen's comments instead of strong supports which would be safer after stocks showed weakness by dropping below supports

Buy S&P Futures @ 1780, Sell S&P Futures @ 1785, Buy S&P Futures for 10am EST expiration

Medium risk trades:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1780 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays above
Sell S&P Futures @ 1785 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays below
S&P Futures rebounded @ possible support 1780 (not confirmed, wait for it to retest 1780 to be safer), current resistance @ 1785 but possible to break above after the market opens @ 9:30am EST

Risk: All US economic data are worse than expected & stocks might be mixed, avoid trading if support/resistance is broken to be safer although current market pattern is to break below support & go higher

Chart shows possible support @ 1780, resistance @ 1785

High risk speculative trade: (without specific price target)
Buy S&P Futures if it goes up after 9:30am EST for 10am EST expiration when Fed Chairperson-Designate Yellen is due to testify
Stocks should go higher ahead of it
Avoid buying if it S&P Futures nears & stays below 1785, wait for it to break & stay above if that's the case

US economic reports update

Trade Balance
Actual: -41.8B   Estimate: -38.7B   Previous: -38.8B
Unemployment Claims
Actual:  339K   Estimate: 331K   Previous: 336K
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
Actual: 1.9%   Estimate: 1.3%   Previous: 2.3%
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
Actual: -0.6%   Estimate: 1.1%   Previous: 0.0%

Stock Market Analysis

Stocks (S&P 500) shot up from 1761 to reach a new record high @ 1782 yesterday
S&P Futures continue to go higher after the market closed due to Yellen's pre-released statement that the Fed must do more to support the economic recovery, which means more QE
S&P Futures current resistance @ 1785, support & rebound @ 1780 & possible to go higher even though stocks are overbought, which is dangerous as there might also be profit taking later
Trade cautiously as there might be more volatility after Yellen's statement @ 10am EST

US economic events 14 November 2013

8:30am
Trade Balance
Unemployment Claims
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

10:00am
Fed Chairperson-Designate Yellen Testifies

Buy S&P Futures @ 1755- won

Buy S&P Futures @ 1755 for 30 minutes-1hour expiration if it stays above (10am EST expiration is preferred)
Stocks are oversold, dropped from 1766 & possible rebound @ 1755
Update:
Risk increased for S&P Futures
Minor resistance @ 1756.66 but possible to break above after the market opens

Result: won
S&P Futures expired @ 1762.15 at 10:00am EST (= 23:00 GMT+8)
Rebound was successful especially after the market opened @ 9:30am EST as it broke above minor resistance @ 1756.66 as expected

S&P Futures minor resistance @ 1756.66

Risk increased for S&P Futures
Minor resistance @ 1756.66 but possible to break above after the market opens

Buy S&P Futures @ 1755

Buy S&P Futures @ 1755 for 30 minutes-1hour expiration if it stays above (10am EST expiration is preferred)

Stocks are oversold, dropped from 1766 & possible rebound @ 1755

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Futures continued to drop due to uncertainty over how soon the Fed will start tapering & economic reforms in China
Fed's Sandra Pianalto will speak at 8:45 am EST & Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at 7:00 pm EST
10-y Bond Auction will be announced @ 1:01 pm EST
Federal Budget Balance will be released @ 2:00 pm EST

Stocks should stay below today but is oversold so the market might be mixed
S&P 500 strong resistance @ 1770
Trade less & cautiously today

Buy Amazon @ 350- invalid, Buy Apple @ 520- invalid, Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- invalid

Medium risk trades:
Buy Amazon @ 350 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Buy S&P 500 @ 1770 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above

Risk: Stocks dropped below supports earlier, S&P 500's support @ 1770 not confirmed for today yet
Wait for S&P 500 to drop back & test 1770 before trading any signals to be safer

Results:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- invalid

S&P 500 dropped below 1770 & failed to break above again after Fed's Lockhart said: a taper 'could very well take place' next month.
We waited for 2nd rebounds @ supports for more confirmation as the first ones cannot confirm that they'll stay above & it failed our test by not staying above 1770 due to Lockhart's comment
This showed that stocks became weaker & not safe to trade but it's also possible to repeat previous market pattern & suddenly break above to go higher later
After S&P 500 failed our test, other signals should become invalid too as we mentioned "Wait for S&P 500 to drop back & test 1770 before trading any signals to be safer"

Buy Amazon @ 350- invalid
Amazon dropped below 350

Buy Apple @ 520- invalid/win at higher risk
Although Apple did not drop below 520, it became invalid & too risky to trade as it couldn't go any higher after S&P 500 failed to stay above
It also dropped below 520 later even after the new iPad Mini with Retina display is on sale starting today
Higher risk trade would be buying around 521 for it to expire around 522 @ 11:30am EST but not recommended & won't be considered a win in our records

Buy S&P Futures @ 1763- 2 wins

High risk trade:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1763 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding @ 1763
Risk: It dropped below 1763 so support is broken & weak but recent market pattern is breaking below supports then rebound higher

Result: 2 wins
S&P Futures broke slightly below support & rebounded @ 1762.875 several times, expired @ 1764.1192 at 9:30am EST (time shown below is 14:30 GMT, EST= GMT-5)

Another chance to buy was when it dropped again to 1763 just after our 1st win & expired @ 1766.625 at 10:00am EST (15:00 GMT)

Buy Amazon @ 350, Buy Apple @ 520, Buy S&P 500 @ 1770

Medium risk trades:
Buy Amazon @ 350 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Buy Apple @ 520 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Buy S&P 500 @ 1770 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above

Risk: Stocks dropped below supports earlier, S&P 500's support @ 1770 not confirmed for today yet
Wait for S&P 500 to drop back & test 1770 before trading any signals to be safer

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Futures dropped after Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher warned investors to prepare for QE tapering
"We've changed and impacted the markets because of our intervention and I understand there's sensitivity, but markets should also bear in mind that this program cannot go on forever"
S&P Futures dropped from 1770 to 1763, rebounding but weak
The market should show a clearer direction around 30 minutes after the market opens, trade cautiously as support is weak
Possible smaller resistance @ 1766, stronger resistance @ 1770 but also possible to break above if it follows previous market patterns

Buy S&P Futures @ 1763

High risk trade:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1763 for 30 minutes expiration if it stays above
Rebounding @ 1763

Risk: It dropped below 1763 so support is broken & weak but recent market pattern is breaking below supports then rebound higher

Buy Apple @ 515- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- 2 wins, Buy Amazon @ 350- won, Buy Disney @ 68.0- won, Buy Twitter @ 40.0- won

Previous signals:
Medium risk trades:
Buy Apple @ 513 or 515 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy S&P 500 @ 1768 or 1770 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Amazon @ 350 or 352 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Disney @ 68.0 or 68.58 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Twitter @ 40.0 for 30 minutes expiration

Results:
Buy Apple @ 513 or 515- won
Apple expired @ 516.13 at 11am EST although a safer trade would be waiting for it to drop below 515 then rebound to expire @ 516.20 at 11:30am EST

Apple also closed @ 519.05, watch 520 for possible support or resistance tomorrow

Buy S&P 500 @ 1768 or 1770- 2 wins
S&P 500 expired @ 1772.35 at 11am EST
Another trade can be made when it reached 1770.01 at 11:06am & expired @ 1771.39 at 11:30am EST

Watch 1770, 1771 for possible supports & 1772, 1773 for possible minor resistances tomorrow

Buy Amazon @ 350 or 352- won
Amazon was too high before 11am EST, wait for it to drop to 352.35 at 11:03am EST & buy for it to expire @ 353.05 at 11:30am EST

Watch 350, 352 for possible supports tomorrow

Buy Disney @ 68.0 or 68.58- won
68.58 was invalid after it broke below, Disney might also be too high above 68.0 before 12am EST but often expired at its highest & resistance point @ 68.45 at 11am, 68.429 at 11:30am, 68.43 at 12pm EST
So as long as you do not buy too high above those points, you should win at any of those expiration times
The safest was to wait for it to drop to its lowest @ 68.20 & rebound to expire @ 68.35 at 1:00pm EST

Watch 68.25 for possible support & 68.45 for possible resistance tomorrow

Buy Twitter @ 40.0- won
Twitter was also too high but expired @ 41.18 at 11am EST, its highest point after we issued the signal, it also expired @ 41.67 (another highest point) at 11:30am EST, so you should win buying anytime near there
Twitter went higher, stayed below 43.0 & closed @ 42.90 but broke above 43.0 after-market

Watch 43.0 for possible support or resistance tomorrow

Buy Apple @ 515, Buy S&P 500 @ 1770, Buy Amazon @ 350, Buy Disney @ 68.0, Buy Twitter @ 40.0

Most stocks broke below supports but went up higher & is dropping back now, trading will be at a higher risk
It's possible for them to repeat the pattern again, so it might be safer to wait for stocks to drop below & buy if they rebound later
S&P 500 broke below then above 1770, facing resistance @ 1773, which is 1770 for S&P Futures

Medium risk trades:
Buy Apple @ 513 or 515 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy S&P 500 @ 1768 or 1770 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Amazon @ 350 or 352 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Disney @ 68.0 or 68.58 (higher risk) for 30 minutes expiration
Buy Twitter @ 40.0 for 30 minutes expiration

Stocks to watch

Stock Futures are flat & slightly mixed, dropped below 1766 but is now above it before the market opens although showing some weakness
Watch S&P Futures @ 1766, S&P 500 @ 1770 for possible support/resistance
The market might continue to go higher despite weak supports which is not safe & might breakdown anytime
Trade less & cautiously

Apple is developing new iPhone designs
Watch Apple @ 520

Disney's ‘Thor: The Dark World’ tops box office with $86 million
Disney's support @ 68

Amazon announced partnership with the US Postal Service that will deliver its packages on Sundays
Resistance @ 350 but might be temporary

Free Binary Options Trading Signals monthly results: October 2013

60 wins 5 losses 
(Signals that become invalid are not counted even if they're won at a higher risk as they're not safe to trade)
92.3% winning rate (excluding invalid signals that became too risky to trade)

Trade History (More details can be found in blog archive)

	Sell S&P 500 @ 1760- invalid						31/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1760- won						30/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- 1 win, 1 invalid/ win at higher risk						30/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1766- invalid/ win at higher risk						29/10/2013
	Buy Apple @ 525- won (30 minutes) lost (1 hour) (counted as a loss)						29/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1765- win at higher risk						29/10/2013
	Buy Pfizer @ 31.1- win at higher risk						29/10/2013
	Sell S&P Futures @ 1760.65- invalid						29/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1760- invalid/ win at higher risk						28/10/2013
	Sell Merck @ 45.5- lost						28/10/2013
	Buy Apple @ 524- won						28/10/2013
	Buy Boeing @ 130- 1 win, 1 invalid						28/10/2013
	25 October 2013 trading signals results						25/10/2013
	Buy Apple @ 524- won						25/10/2013
	Sell Xerox @ 10.0- invalid/ win at higher risk						24/10/2013
	Sell Netflix @ 330- won						24/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1750- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1746- won						24/10/2013
	Sell S&P Futures @ 1744.875- won						24/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1744- invalid, Sell Netflix @ 330- won						23/10/2013
	Buy Eli Lilly @ 50.0- won						23/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1742- won						23/10/2013
	Buy Apple @ 520- lost						22/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1760- won						22/10/2013
	Sell Netflix @ 380- won, Buy Apple @ 520- invalid						22/10/2013
	Sell S&P Futures @ 1744- won						22/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1745- lost						21/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1740- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1736- won						18/10/2013
	Sell General Motors @ 36.0- won						18/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1720- won, Sell S&P 500 @ 1730- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1726- won						17/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1710- abandoned						16/10/2013
	Buy Intel @ 23.25- won						16/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1710- tie						16/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1700- invalid						15/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1710- invalid						15/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1706- won						15/10/2013
	Buy Coca-Cola @ 37.75- won						15/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1706- won						15/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1710- invalid						14/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1696- won, Sell Citigroup @ 49.0- won, Sell Netflix @ 310- invalid						14/10/2013
	Sell JPM @ 52.55- invalid, Sell FB @ 49.5- invalid, Buy Amazon @ 308- won, Buy S&P 500 @ 1694- won						11/10/2013
	Sell Amazon @ 310- won						11/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1696- won						11/10/2013
	Sell JPMorgan @ 53.2- won						11/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1680- lost						10/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1680- invalid, Buy Netflix @ 300- won						10/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1670- won						10/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1658- won						09/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1650- won, Sell S&P 500 @ 1660- won						09/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500- invalid						09/10/2013
	Buy S&P Futures @ 1654- invalid						09/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1676- won						08/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1670- won						08/10/2013
	Buy Amazon- invalid						08/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500 @ 1685- won, Sell BlackBerry @ 8.0- won, Sell Facebook @ 51.25- won						07/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1680- won, Buy Apple @ 490- won, Buy Facebook @ 50.5- won						07/10/2013
	Buy S&P 500 @ 1675- won, Buy Apple @ 485- won						07/10/2013
	Buy FB @ 50.0- won						04/10/2013
	Buy JPM @ 52.0- won						04/10/2013
	Sell Amazon- won, Sell Netflix- won, Sell Microsoft- won						03/10/2013
	Sell FB- won						03/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500- won, Sell BBRY- won						03/10/2013
	Buy FB- won						02/10/2013
	Sell BlackBerry- invalid						02/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500- invalid						01/10/2013
	Sell S&P 500- won						01/10/2013
	Sell MSFT- won						01/10/2013
	Sell GM- won						01/10/2013
	Buy Microsoft- invalid						01/10/2013
	Sell GM- won						01/10/2013

Sell USD/JPY- invalid

01/10/2013