S&P 500 gained strength & broke above 1780 but is still unstable
Buy S&P 500 @ 1770-1775 or up to 1780 at higher risk for end of day expiration
Buy S&P 500 @ 1780 if & after it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: 1780 is not a strong support yet
S&P 500 must close above 1770 at the end of the 1st month this year or risk dropping further
It would be even better if it can close above 1780
Risk: The stock market can be very volatile especially at the end of the day & month
Trusted Binary Options Brokers
Friday, 31 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1780
Sell S&P 500 @ 1780 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
New resistance @ 1780, S&P 500 dropped from 1780, avoid buying S&P Futures @ 1770 if it doesn't stay above & go higher
New resistance @ 1780, S&P 500 dropped from 1780, avoid buying S&P Futures @ 1770 if it doesn't stay above & go higher
Buy S&P Futures @ 1770
Buy S&P Futures @ 1770 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: 1770 is not a strong support yet but S&P Futures is too low
Risk: 1770 is not a strong support yet but S&P Futures is too low
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790- invalid/ lost
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1790 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Result: invalid/lost
S&P 500 only stayed below 1790 for a while (wait for S&P 500 to reach 1790 again) but did not drop further anymore & broke above 1790 later
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790 became invalid
Result: invalid/lost
S&P 500 only stayed below 1790 for a while (wait for S&P 500 to reach 1790 again) but did not drop further anymore & broke above 1790 later
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790 became invalid
Thursday, 30 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1790
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1790 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Wednesday, 29 January 2014
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1800
After the stock market closed, S&P Futures broke above 1788 & 1790 to reach 1800 & drop
Next resistance @ 1800, watch S&P Futures @ 1800 tomorrow (29 January 2014)
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1800 if it stays below & drops further
Risk: S&P Futures strengthened & is currently bullish but is still staying below 1800
Next resistance @ 1800, watch S&P Futures @ 1800 tomorrow (29 January 2014)
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1800 if it stays below & drops further
Risk: S&P Futures strengthened & is currently bullish but is still staying below 1800
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 or 1788- win at higher risk
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 or 1788 (higher risk) if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Result: win at higher risk
S&P Futures dropped from 1788 to 1785 but rebounded higher to close @ 1787.45 at 4pm EST
Result: win at higher risk
S&P Futures dropped from 1788 to 1785 but rebounded higher to close @ 1787.45 at 4pm EST
Monday, 27 January 2014
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790
Sell S&P Futures @ 1790 or 1788 (higher risk) if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Friday, 24 January 2014
Trading signals to watch today
S&P Futures dropped below 1830 after economic news yesterday & even dropped to 1812 now
Not safe to trade anymore as the stock market is too weak for now
Resistance @ 1828-1830
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration, although it might not even reach 1830 today
Not safe to trade anymore as the stock market is too weak for now
Resistance @ 1828-1830
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration, although it might not even reach 1830 today
Thursday, 23 January 2014
US economic reports update
Unemployment Claims
Actual: 326K Estimate: 331K Previous: 325K
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 53.7 Estimate: 55.2 Previous: 54.4
HPI m/m
Actual: 0.6% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 0.5%
S&P Futures dropped further below 1830 after economic report, therefore not safe to buy anymore as it's still weak
Actual: 326K Estimate: 331K Previous: 325K
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 53.7 Estimate: 55.2 Previous: 54.4
HPI m/m
Actual: 0.6% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 0.5%
S&P Futures dropped further below 1830 after economic report, therefore not safe to buy anymore as it's still weak
Trading Signals to watch
S&P 500 stayed below 1850 yesterday
S&P Futures rebounded around 1835-1836 & only reached 1843 after the stock market closed, then dropped sharply to rebound @ 1830
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1843 if it stays below & drops further
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
All for 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures still looks weak for now, buying will be at a higher risk
Economic news especially Unemployment claims might also affect it later
(Time shown in chart is EST)
S&P Futures rebounded around 1835-1836 & only reached 1843 after the stock market closed, then dropped sharply to rebound @ 1830
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1843 if it stays below & drops further
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
All for 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures still looks weak for now, buying will be at a higher risk
Economic news especially Unemployment claims might also affect it later
(Time shown in chart is EST)
US economic reports 23 January 2014
8:30am
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
HPI m/m
10:00am
Existing Home Sales
CB Leading Index m/m
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
HPI m/m
10:00am
Existing Home Sales
CB Leading Index m/m
Wednesday, 22 January 2014
Stock Market Analysis & Trading Signals to watch
S&P 500 Analysis
S&P 500's resistance @ 1850 is still strong as it stayed below & dropped sharply yesterday
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Economic news
World Economic Forum annual meetings will be held starting from today & throughout the week
Comments from influential officials can create significant market volatility
Trading will be at a higher risk this week
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: ‘As economies continue to stabilize in 2014, our experts expect we could see accelerated growth’
Therefore there's the risk of S&P 500 gaining strength & even breaking above 1850 because of comments like these
Avoid selling if it breaks above 1850 & goes higher
S&P Futures Analysis
S&P Futures is currently rebounding @ 1835-1836 but it may not be quite safe to trade as it dropped further below yesterday
S&P Futures new resistance @ 1843 (S&P 500's 1850), there's also smaller resistance @ 1838 although it can be broken easily
S&P Futures is currently following S&P 500 as it dropped when S&P 500 reached 1850 yesterday
So it would be safer to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 instead of S&P Futures @ 1843 as the value for S&P Futures might change later
Risks: 1835 & 1838 are not strong support or resistance & are just temporary, which can be broken easily, trade at your own risk
(High risk: Buy @ 1835-1836, Sell @ 1843/1838)
S&P 500's resistance @ 1850 is still strong as it stayed below & dropped sharply yesterday
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Economic news
World Economic Forum annual meetings will be held starting from today & throughout the week
Comments from influential officials can create significant market volatility
Trading will be at a higher risk this week
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: ‘As economies continue to stabilize in 2014, our experts expect we could see accelerated growth’
Therefore there's the risk of S&P 500 gaining strength & even breaking above 1850 because of comments like these
Avoid selling if it breaks above 1850 & goes higher
S&P Futures Analysis
S&P Futures is currently rebounding @ 1835-1836 but it may not be quite safe to trade as it dropped further below yesterday
S&P Futures new resistance @ 1843 (S&P 500's 1850), there's also smaller resistance @ 1838 although it can be broken easily
S&P Futures is currently following S&P 500 as it dropped when S&P 500 reached 1850 yesterday
So it would be safer to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 instead of S&P Futures @ 1843 as the value for S&P Futures might change later
Risks: 1835 & 1838 are not strong support or resistance & are just temporary, which can be broken easily, trade at your own risk
(High risk: Buy @ 1835-1836, Sell @ 1843/1838)
Sell S&P Futures @ 1842- win at higher risk
Previous signal to watch:
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1842 or 1840 (higher risk) if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures built strong resistance @ 1842 & dropped, it also dropped from 1840 which is a 2nd possible resistance, sell if it reaches 1842 & drop again or sell @ 1840 at higher risk if it stays below & drops further
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1842- win at higher risk
S&P Futures went higher & reached 1843 before the stock market opened but couldn't go higher & dropped further below 1842 & 1840 later
Sell S&P Futures @ 1842 or 1840 as it dropped further to expire @ 1835.95 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13 hours)
It also continued to drop even further later
Overview of S&P Futures shows that S&P Futures mostly stayed below 1842 for the day
It tried to stay above 1842 after slightly breaking above but the resistance was strong enough to push it down further below to 1827-1828
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1842 or 1840 (higher risk) if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures built strong resistance @ 1842 & dropped, it also dropped from 1840 which is a 2nd possible resistance, sell if it reaches 1842 & drop again or sell @ 1840 at higher risk if it stays below & drops further
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1842- win at higher risk
S&P Futures went higher & reached 1843 before the stock market opened but couldn't go higher & dropped further below 1842 & 1840 later
Sell S&P Futures @ 1842 or 1840 as it dropped further to expire @ 1835.95 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13 hours)
It also continued to drop even further later
Overview of S&P Futures shows that S&P Futures mostly stayed below 1842 for the day
It tried to stay above 1842 after slightly breaking above but the resistance was strong enough to push it down further below to 1827-1828
Tuesday, 21 January 2014
Sell S&P Futures @ 1842
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1842 or 1840 (higher risk) if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures built strong resistance @ 1842 & dropped, it also dropped from 1840 which is a 2nd possible resistance, sell if it reaches 1842 & drop again or sell @ 1840 at higher risk if it stays below & drops further
S&P Futures built strong resistance @ 1842 & dropped, it also dropped from 1840 which is a 2nd possible resistance, sell if it reaches 1842 & drop again or sell @ 1840 at higher risk if it stays below & drops further
Friday, 17 January 2014
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win
Previous signal to watch:
Most economic news & earnings are mixed again, but S&P Futures showed that it was able to break above 1840 earlier
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: S&P Futures can break above 1840 later
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win
S&P Futures broke slightly above 1840 but dropped back further below to expire @ 1838.45 at 1am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
S&P Futures stayed below 1840 most of the time & even dropped to 1830 after reaching 1840, rebounded @ 1830 but not safe to buy as S&P Futures is too weak & it was near end of the day
Most economic news & earnings are mixed again, but S&P Futures showed that it was able to break above 1840 earlier
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: S&P Futures can break above 1840 later
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win
S&P Futures broke slightly above 1840 but dropped back further below to expire @ 1838.45 at 1am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Stock Market Analysis & Trading Signals to watch
S&P Future broke & stayed above 1840 at 5am EST but dropped back below 1840 at 8am EST before economic news
It dropped further after 8:30am EST's economic news which are slightly above/below expectations
S&P Futures tried to break above 1840 again but reached 1839 & dropped sharply
Morgan Stanley's earnings dropped sharply due to legal bills
American Express' profit doubled
General Electric's earnings met expectations although not better than expected
Intel's earnings slightly missed expectations
Most economic news & earnings are mixed again, but S&P Futures showed that it was able to break above 1840 earlier
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: S&P Futures can break above 1840 later
It dropped further after 8:30am EST's economic news which are slightly above/below expectations
S&P Futures tried to break above 1840 again but reached 1839 & dropped sharply
Morgan Stanley's earnings dropped sharply due to legal bills
American Express' profit doubled
General Electric's earnings met expectations although not better than expected
Intel's earnings slightly missed expectations
Most economic news & earnings are mixed again, but S&P Futures showed that it was able to break above 1840 earlier
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: S&P Futures can break above 1840 later
US economic reports update
Capacity Utilization Rate
Actual: 79.2% Estimate: 79.2% Previous: 79.1%
Industrial Production m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 1.0%
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Actual: 80.4 Estimate: 83.4 Previous: 82.5
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Actual: 3.0% Previous: 3.0%
JOLTS Job Openings
Actual: 4.00M Estimate: 3.97M Previous: 3.93M
Actual: 79.2% Estimate: 79.2% Previous: 79.1%
Industrial Production m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 1.0%
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Actual: 80.4 Estimate: 83.4 Previous: 82.5
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Actual: 3.0% Previous: 3.0%
JOLTS Job Openings
Actual: 4.00M Estimate: 3.97M Previous: 3.93M
US economic reports update
Building Permits
Actual: 0.99M Estimate: 1.01M Previous: 1.01M
Housing Starts
Actual: 1.00M Estimate: 0.99M Previous: 1.09M
Actual: 0.99M Estimate: 1.01M Previous: 1.01M
Housing Starts
Actual: 1.00M Estimate: 0.99M Previous: 1.09M
US economic data 17 January 2014
8:30am
Building Permits
Housing Starts
9:15am
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
9:55am
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00am
JOLTS Job Openings
Building Permits
Housing Starts
9:15am
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
9:55am
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00am
JOLTS Job Openings
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- 3 wins
Trading signals to watch "Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 (S&P Futures @ 1844), Buy S&P 500 @ 1846 or S&P Futures @ 1840" invalid after data leak which caused stock futures to drop below 1840
Economic data & earnings reports were not good enough for S&P Futures to even go back above 1840
New trading strategy formed after analyzing stock market's reaction
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration S&P Futures dropped sharply after reaching 1840, 1840 turned into possible resistance
Results:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- 3 wins
S&P Futures broke slightly above 1840 but dropped back near 10am EST for the last economic data, sell at higher risk after it dropped further for it to expire @ 1839.45 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in charts are EST+13hours)
S&P Futures broke above 1840 temporarily but failed to stay above & dropped below again to expire @ 1839.15 at 2pm EST
S&P Futures reached 1840 for the 3rd time but this time it stayed below & dropped further to expire @ 1839.45 at 3pm EST or 1838.95 at 3:30pm EST
Finally, S&P Futures dropped to 1837 10 minutes before the market closed & jumped up to break above 1840 but dropped back to close @ 1839.95 then dropped further below, showing that resistance @ 1840 is still strong even though it kept trying to break above it
Watch S&P Futures @ 1840 again tomorrow
Economic data & earnings reports were not good enough for S&P Futures to even go back above 1840
New trading strategy formed after analyzing stock market's reaction
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration S&P Futures dropped sharply after reaching 1840, 1840 turned into possible resistance
Results:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- 3 wins
S&P Futures broke slightly above 1840 but dropped back near 10am EST for the last economic data, sell at higher risk after it dropped further for it to expire @ 1839.45 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in charts are EST+13hours)
S&P Futures broke above 1840 temporarily but failed to stay above & dropped below again to expire @ 1839.15 at 2pm EST
S&P Futures reached 1840 for the 3rd time but this time it stayed below & dropped further to expire @ 1839.45 at 3pm EST or 1838.95 at 3:30pm EST
Finally, S&P Futures dropped to 1837 10 minutes before the market closed & jumped up to break above 1840 but dropped back to close @ 1839.95 then dropped further below, showing that resistance @ 1840 is still strong even though it kept trying to break above it
Watch S&P Futures @ 1840 again tomorrow
Thursday, 16 January 2014
US economic reports update
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Actual: 9.4 Estimate: 8.8 Previous: 7.0
NAHB Housing Market Index
Actual: 56 Estimate: 58 Previous: 57
Actual: 9.4 Estimate: 8.8 Previous: 7.0
NAHB Housing Market Index
Actual: 56 Estimate: 58 Previous: 57
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
S&P Futures dropped sharply after reaching 1840, 1840 turned into possible resistance
S&P Futures dropped sharply after reaching 1840, 1840 turned into possible resistance
Stock Market Analysis
Stock futures dropped 11 hours earlier after a data leak of TIC Long-Term Purchases being far worse than expected
Actual: -29.3B Estimate: 42.3B Previous: 28.7B
S&P Futures dropped from 1844 (S&P 500's 1850) & even broke below 1840 before economic news
Data officially confirmed @ 9am EST, S&P Futures rebounded higher as the bad data is already priced in when it dropped earlier, but it's still staying below 1840 before the market opens
Trading signal to watch: Buy S&P Futures @ 1840 is invalid as support is broken, avoid or trade at higher risk if it goes back above
8:30am EST's economic data are only in line with expectations & might not be good enough to help S&P 500 break above 1850
Citigroup's earnings report worse than expected, Goldman Sachs' earnings better than expectations, BlackRock posted higher than expected profits but Best Buy's holiday sales were worse than expected, sending Best Buy's stock to drop more than 30%
Economic data & earnings reports are mixed, S&P 500 might not be able to break & stay above 1850 today
Actual: -29.3B Estimate: 42.3B Previous: 28.7B
S&P Futures dropped from 1844 (S&P 500's 1850) & even broke below 1840 before economic news
Data officially confirmed @ 9am EST, S&P Futures rebounded higher as the bad data is already priced in when it dropped earlier, but it's still staying below 1840 before the market opens
Trading signal to watch: Buy S&P Futures @ 1840 is invalid as support is broken, avoid or trade at higher risk if it goes back above
8:30am EST's economic data are only in line with expectations & might not be good enough to help S&P 500 break above 1850
Citigroup's earnings report worse than expected, Goldman Sachs' earnings better than expectations, BlackRock posted higher than expected profits but Best Buy's holiday sales were worse than expected, sending Best Buy's stock to drop more than 30%
Economic data & earnings reports are mixed, S&P 500 might not be able to break & stay above 1850 today
US economic reports update
Unemployment Claims
Actual: 326K Estimate: 327K Previous: 330K
Core CPI m/m
Actual: 0.1% Estimate: 0.1% Previous: 0.2%
CPI m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.3% Previous: 0.0%
Actual: 326K Estimate: 327K Previous: 330K
Core CPI m/m
Actual: 0.1% Estimate: 0.1% Previous: 0.2%
CPI m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.3% Previous: 0.0%
US economic events 16 January 2014
8:30am
Unemployment Claims
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
9:00am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
10:00am
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
NAHB Housing Market Index
1:10am
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Unemployment Claims
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
9:00am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
10:00am
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
NAHB Housing Market Index
1:10am
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Trading signals to watch 16 January 2014
Resistance @ 1850 remains strong yesterday as S&P 500 couldn't stay above 1850 even though it tried to
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 (S&P Futures @ 1844) today (16 January 2014) if it fails & drops further again
Risk: S&P 500 might keep trying to break above 1850
New possible support found @ S&P 500's 1846 as S&P 500 dropped to 1846 & rebounded twice, although it's slightly broken
S&P 500's 1846= S&P Future's 1840 as S&P Futures couldn't drop further below 1840 & rebounded
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1846 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays above & goes higher, preferably if both stays above
Although S&P 500 is currently trading in the range of 1846-1850,
Economic data & Fed Chairman's speech might affect the market & help it break above or drop below the range of 1846-1850
Wait for economic data, watch market's reaction & trade cautiously as there are a lot of important economic news today & the market can be quite volatile
Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1850 (S&P Futures @ 1844) today (16 January 2014) if it fails & drops further again
Risk: S&P 500 might keep trying to break above 1850
New possible support found @ S&P 500's 1846 as S&P 500 dropped to 1846 & rebounded twice, although it's slightly broken
S&P 500's 1846= S&P Future's 1840 as S&P Futures couldn't drop further below 1840 & rebounded
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1846 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays above & goes higher, preferably if both stays above
Although S&P 500 is currently trading in the range of 1846-1850,
Economic data & Fed Chairman's speech might affect the market & help it break above or drop below the range of 1846-1850
Wait for economic data, watch market's reaction & trade cautiously as there are a lot of important economic news today & the market can be quite volatile
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850- 3 wins at higher risk
Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1850's the strongest resistance as S&P 500's highest point was at 1849.44
S&P 500 will break that record if it breaks above 1850 today, which will be difficult
Stock market update:
The World Bank expects global economic growth to accelerate in 2014
Bank of America's profit jumps to nearly $3 billion
Most economic news are better than expected, market trend is still bullish
Therefore possibility for S&P 500 to hit a new record later today is increased
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850's risk increased, avoid selling or trade at higher risk, especially if it breaks above 1850
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 update:
S&P 500 broke above 1850 & hit a new record as expected, but resistance @ 1850 still remains strong for now as it's dropping further below
However, it might try to break above 1850 later again
Results:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850- 3 wins at higher risk
S&P 500 broke above 1850 to set a new record @ 1850.84 but quickly dropped back further below
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 after it dropped below for it to expire @ 1846.94 at 11:30am EST
S&P 500 also tried to break above 1850 again but failed to break above
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 again for it to expire @ 1849.30 at 12:30pm EST
S&P 500 tried again & broke slightly above 1850 but failed to stay above & dropped again to expire @ 1847.80 at 3:30pm EST
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1850's the strongest resistance as S&P 500's highest point was at 1849.44
S&P 500 will break that record if it breaks above 1850 today, which will be difficult
Stock market update:
The World Bank expects global economic growth to accelerate in 2014
Bank of America's profit jumps to nearly $3 billion
Most economic news are better than expected, market trend is still bullish
Therefore possibility for S&P 500 to hit a new record later today is increased
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850's risk increased, avoid selling or trade at higher risk, especially if it breaks above 1850
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 update:
S&P 500 broke above 1850 & hit a new record as expected, but resistance @ 1850 still remains strong for now as it's dropping further below
However, it might try to break above 1850 later again
Results:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850- 3 wins at higher risk
S&P 500 broke above 1850 to set a new record @ 1850.84 but quickly dropped back further below
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 after it dropped below for it to expire @ 1846.94 at 11:30am EST
S&P 500 also tried to break above 1850 again but failed to break above
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 again for it to expire @ 1849.30 at 12:30pm EST
S&P 500 tried again & broke slightly above 1850 but failed to stay above & dropped again to expire @ 1847.80 at 3:30pm EST
Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win at higher risk
Previous Analysis & Trading Signals to watch:
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it breaks above resistance, stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1840 is a strong resistance as S&P 500 dropped below 1840 resistance most of the time for several days & might drop below again
However, S&P 500 jumped from 1820 to 1840 yesterday, showing a lot of strength
See if 1840 resistance can turn into support today, sell if it fails
Results:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win at higher risk
Buy S&P 500 around 1843 at higher risk as it opened @ 1842, didn't drop below 1843 & went higher
S&P 500 expired @ 1847.84 at 10:30am EST
Sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840- invalid
Both broke above 1840 & went higher therefore signal became invalid
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it breaks above resistance, stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1840 is a strong resistance as S&P 500 dropped below 1840 resistance most of the time for several days & might drop below again
However, S&P 500 jumped from 1820 to 1840 yesterday, showing a lot of strength
See if 1840 resistance can turn into support today, sell if it fails
Results:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win at higher risk
Buy S&P 500 around 1843 at higher risk as it opened @ 1842, didn't drop below 1843 & went higher
S&P 500 expired @ 1847.84 at 10:30am EST
Sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840- invalid
Both broke above 1840 & went higher therefore signal became invalid
Wednesday, 15 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 update
S&P 500 broke above 1850 & hit a new record as expected, but resistance @ 1850 still remains strong for now as it's dropping further below
However, it might try to break above 1850 later again
However, it might try to break above 1850 later again
Stock market update
The World Bank expects global economic growth to accelerate in 2014
Bank of America's profit jumps to nearly $3 billion
Most economic news are better than expected, market trend is still bullish
Therefore possibility for S&P 500 to hit a new record later today is increased
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850's risk increased, avoid selling or trade at higher risk, especially if it breaks above 1850
Bank of America's profit jumps to nearly $3 billion
Most economic news are better than expected, market trend is still bullish
Therefore possibility for S&P 500 to hit a new record later today is increased
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850's risk increased, avoid selling or trade at higher risk, especially if it breaks above 1850
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850
Sell S&P 500 @ 1850 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1850's the strongest resistance as S&P 500's highest point was at 1849.44
S&P 500 will break that record if it breaks above 1850 today, which will be difficult
1850's the strongest resistance as S&P 500's highest point was at 1849.44
S&P 500 will break that record if it breaks above 1850 today, which will be difficult
S&P 500 Analysis & Trading Signals to watch
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it breaks above resistance, stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1840 is a strong resistance as S&P 500 dropped below 1840 resistance most of the time for several days & might drop below again
However, S&P 500 jumped from 1820 to 1840 yesterday, showing a lot of strength
See if 1840 resistance can turn into support today, sell if it fails
Look to sell S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
1840 is a strong resistance as S&P 500 dropped below 1840 resistance most of the time for several days & might drop below again
However, S&P 500 jumped from 1820 to 1840 yesterday, showing a lot of strength
See if 1840 resistance can turn into support today, sell if it fails
US economic reports 15 January 2014
8:30am
PPI m/m
Actual: 0.4% Estimate: 0.5% Previous: -0.1%
Core PPI m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.1% Previous: 0.1%
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Actual: 12.5 Estimate: 3.2 Previous: 1.0
2:00pm
Beige Book
PPI m/m
Actual: 0.4% Estimate: 0.5% Previous: -0.1%
Core PPI m/m
Actual: 0.3% Estimate: 0.1% Previous: 0.1%
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Actual: 12.5 Estimate: 3.2 Previous: 1.0
2:00pm
Beige Book
Tuesday, 14 January 2014
S&P Futures analysis (unpublished) No safe trading signals today
Economic reports mostly better than expected, S&P Futures broke above small resistance @ 1819
Look to buy S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1819-1820 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: support not confirmed, S&P Futures is still weak but trying to recover, rebounded from 1810 & is slowly going higher
Analysis & trading signal written before the market opened, but unpublished as S&P Futures broke below 1820 & dropped to 1816 after it opened, not safe to trade even though it went up higher later
S&P 500 stayed above but support @ 1820 not confirmed as it was already broken yesterday
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Conclusion: no safe trading signals today
No confirmed supports found today but S&P still went up higher anyway
We should be more cautious after S&P 500 dropped the most from 1843 to 1816 yesterday although it rebounded today without any strong supports
The market seems to be stabilizing as it closed at 1838.88, back to 1840
Watch S&P 500 @ 1840 tomorrow
Look to buy S&P 500 or S&P Futures @ 1819-1820 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: support not confirmed, S&P Futures is still weak but trying to recover, rebounded from 1810 & is slowly going higher
Analysis & trading signal written before the market opened, but unpublished as S&P Futures broke below 1820 & dropped to 1816 after it opened, not safe to trade even though it went up higher later
S&P 500 stayed above but support @ 1820 not confirmed as it was already broken yesterday
Conclusion: no safe trading signals today
No confirmed supports found today but S&P still went up higher anyway
We should be more cautious after S&P 500 dropped the most from 1843 to 1816 yesterday although it rebounded today without any strong supports
The market seems to be stabilizing as it closed at 1838.88, back to 1840
Watch S&P 500 @ 1840 tomorrow
US economic reports 14 January 2014
NFIB Small Business Index
Actual: 93.9 Estimate: 93.2 Previous: 92.5
Core Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.7% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 0.1%
Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.2% Estimate: 0.2% Previous: 0.4%
Import Prices m/m
Actual: 0.0% Estimate: 0.3% Previous: -0.9%
10:00am
Business Inventories m/m
12:45pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
1:20pm
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Actual: 93.9 Estimate: 93.2 Previous: 92.5
Core Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.7% Estimate: 0.4% Previous: 0.1%
Retail Sales m/m
Actual: 0.2% Estimate: 0.2% Previous: 0.4%
Import Prices m/m
Actual: 0.0% Estimate: 0.3% Previous: -0.9%
10:00am
Business Inventories m/m
12:45pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
1:20pm
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Monday, 13 January 2014
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830- invalid / win at higher risk
Previous signal:
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 dropped too low, possible rebound @ 1830
Risk: counter trend, S&P 500 is weak after dropping from 1840 to 1830
Avoid selling if it drops more
Update:
S&P 500 also broke below 1830, "Buy S&P 500 @ 1830" signal invalid & not safe to trade
However, we still expect it to be able to go above 1830 before/after 2am EST's Federal Budget Balance, which is expected to be better than previous
Avoid trading or trade at a much higher risk
Result: invalid / win at higher risk
S&P 500 broke below 1830 therefore signal is invalid & not safe to trade
Buying at higher risk after signal is issued would still be a short term win as S&P 500 expired @ 1831.04 at 1:30pm EST
S&P 500 then became too weak & failed to stay above 1830 anymore even after good economic data @ 2pm EST & dropped further to break below 1820
Avoid selling after it failed to stay above & dropped more as 1830 is only a possible rebound, not a strong confirmed support
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 dropped too low, possible rebound @ 1830
Risk: counter trend, S&P 500 is weak after dropping from 1840 to 1830
Avoid selling if it drops more
Update:
S&P 500 also broke below 1830, "Buy S&P 500 @ 1830" signal invalid & not safe to trade
However, we still expect it to be able to go above 1830 before/after 2am EST's Federal Budget Balance, which is expected to be better than previous
Avoid trading or trade at a much higher risk
Result: invalid / win at higher risk
S&P 500 broke below 1830 therefore signal is invalid & not safe to trade
Buying at higher risk after signal is issued would still be a short term win as S&P 500 expired @ 1831.04 at 1:30pm EST
S&P 500 then became too weak & failed to stay above 1830 anymore even after good economic data @ 2pm EST & dropped further to break below 1820
Avoid selling after it failed to stay above & dropped more as 1830 is only a possible rebound, not a strong confirmed support
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win at higher risk
Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration or less
Result: win at higher risk
S&P 500 dropped from 1840 to 1836.45 & continued to drop further to 1832.03 at 1pm EST
Any sell above 1832.03 should be a win, even though selling lower than 1840 would be at a higher risk
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration or less
Result: win at higher risk
S&P 500 dropped from 1840 to 1836.45 & continued to drop further to 1832.03 at 1pm EST
Any sell above 1832.03 should be a win, even though selling lower than 1840 would be at a higher risk
Federal Budget Balance update
Federal Budget Balance
Actual: 53.2B Estimate: 44.3B Previous: -135.2B
Actual: 53.2B Estimate: 44.3B Previous: -135.2B
"Buy S&P 500 @ 1830" update
S&P 500 also broke below 1830, "Buy S&P 500 @ 1830" signal invalid & not safe to trade
However, we still expect it to be able to go above 1830 before/after 2am EST's Federal Budget Balance, which is expected to be better than previous
Avoid trading or trade at a much higher risk
However, we still expect it to be able to go above 1830 before/after 2am EST's Federal Budget Balance, which is expected to be better than previous
Avoid trading or trade at a much higher risk
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 dropped too low, possible rebound @ 1830
Risk: counter trend, S&P 500 is weak after dropping from 1840 to 1830
Avoid selling if it drops more
Buy S&P 500 @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 dropped too low, possible rebound @ 1830
Risk: counter trend, S&P 500 is weak after dropping from 1840 to 1830
Avoid selling if it drops more
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840
High risk:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration or less
Not quite safe to trade earlier as S&P 500's support @ 1840 is broken
Although it stayed above 1840 most of the time, earlier @ 1839.67, 1839.63, small resistance @ 1841 but suddenly jumped to 1842 & now dropped sharply from 1841 to 1839, breaking below 1840
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further for 30 minutes expiration or less
Not quite safe to trade earlier as S&P 500's support @ 1840 is broken
Although it stayed above 1840 most of the time, earlier @ 1839.67, 1839.63, small resistance @ 1841 but suddenly jumped to 1842 & now dropped sharply from 1841 to 1839, breaking below 1840
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
Saturday, 11 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- 2 wins, 1 loss/invalid at higher risk
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Result: 2 wins, 1 loss/invalid at higher risk
Sell S&P 500 slightly lower than 1840 (slightly below 1839 as it couldn't go any higher) for it to expire @ 1836.60 at 1pm EST & 1836.45 at 2pm EST
Signal posted at 12:47 EST, S&P 500 stayed below 1839 for 2 hours but broke above 1839 & 1840 later, showing that it's not safe to trade anymore, especially near end of the day & week, when the market has increased volatility
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 at higher risk later would result in a loss, as S&P 500 did not stay below & drop further
S&P 500 did not follow its previous pattern anymore, when it dropped @ 1840 for the past few days
Result: 2 wins, 1 loss/invalid at higher risk
Sell S&P 500 slightly lower than 1840 (slightly below 1839 as it couldn't go any higher) for it to expire @ 1836.60 at 1pm EST & 1836.45 at 2pm EST
Signal posted at 12:47 EST, S&P 500 stayed below 1839 for 2 hours but broke above 1839 & 1840 later, showing that it's not safe to trade anymore, especially near end of the day & week, when the market has increased volatility
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 at higher risk later would result in a loss, as S&P 500 did not stay below & drop further
S&P 500 did not follow its previous pattern anymore, when it dropped @ 1840 for the past few days
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win at higher risk
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Economic reports worse than expected
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win at higher risk
Sell S&P Futures slightly lower than 1840, (at its highest 1838.45 as it couldn't go any higher) for it to expire @ 1836.95 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Economic reports worse than expected
Result: Sell S&P Futures @ 1840- win at higher risk
Sell S&P Futures slightly lower than 1840, (at its highest 1838.45 as it couldn't go any higher) for it to expire @ 1836.95 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Friday, 10 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840
Sell S&P Futures @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration or less
Economic reports worse than expected
Economic reports worse than expected
US economic reports update
Non-Farm Employment Change
Actual: 74K Estimate: 196K Previous: 241K
Unemployment Rate
Actual: 6.7% Estimate: 7.0% Previous: 7.0%
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Actual: 0.1% Estimate: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%
Actual: 74K Estimate: 196K Previous: 241K
Unemployment Rate
Actual: 6.7% Estimate: 7.0% Previous: 7.0%
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Actual: 0.1% Estimate: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%
US economic reports 10 January 2014
8:30am
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
10:00am
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Wholesale Inventories m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
10:00am
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Wholesale Inventories m/m
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
Previous signal:
High risk: Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 looks quite weak but is currently staying above 1840
1840 might be broken later & it shouldn't go too high before NFP tomorrow
There's also a lot of possible resistances @ 1843, 1845 or 1846, 1850
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 dropped below 1840 as expected & expired @ 1837.98 at 10:30am EST
Sell lower @ 1838 at higher risk for more possible wins
S&P 500 tried to rebound but stayed below 1840 for the rest of the day
High risk: Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 looks quite weak but is currently staying above 1840
1840 might be broken later & it shouldn't go too high before NFP tomorrow
There's also a lot of possible resistances @ 1843, 1845 or 1846, 1850
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 dropped below 1840 as expected & expired @ 1837.98 at 10:30am EST
Sell lower @ 1838 at higher risk for more possible wins
S&P 500 tried to rebound but stayed below 1840 for the rest of the day
Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win
Previous signal:
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: support @ 1840 not confirmed yet
Result: Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 dropped to 1840, stayed above & went up to expire @ 1841.95 at 10am EST
Support @ 1840 couldn't be confirmed for the rest of the day as it dropped below 1840 later
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: support @ 1840 not confirmed yet
Result: Buy S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 dropped to 1840, stayed above & went up to expire @ 1841.95 at 10am EST
Support @ 1840 couldn't be confirmed for the rest of the day as it dropped below 1840 later
Thursday, 9 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840
High risk: Look to sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 looks quite weak but is currently staying above 1840
1840 might be broken later & it shouldn't go too high before NFP tomorrow
There's also a lot of possible resistances @ 1843, 1845 or 1846, 1850
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
S&P 500 looks quite weak but is currently staying above 1840
1840 might be broken later & it shouldn't go too high before NFP tomorrow
There's also a lot of possible resistances @ 1843, 1845 or 1846, 1850
Risk: S&P 500 might try to stay above 1840 again later
Buy S&P 500 @ 1840
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: support @ 1840 not confirmed yet
Risk: support @ 1840 not confirmed yet
US economic reports 9 January 2013
7:30am
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
Actual: -5.9% Previous: -20.6%
8:30am
Unemployment Claims
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
Actual: -5.9% Previous: -20.6%
8:30am
Unemployment Claims
Wednesday, 8 January 2014
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
Previous signal:
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Economic news better than expected but S&P 500 shouldn't go too high before FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm EST, 1840 was also yesterday's resistance
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 reached its highest at 1840 & dropped to expire @ 1838.17 at 11am EST
S&P 500 also stayed below 1840 for the rest of the day & dropped further
Sell slightly lower @ 1839 then 1838 later at higher risk for more possible wins
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Economic news better than expected but S&P 500 shouldn't go too high before FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm EST, 1840 was also yesterday's resistance
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1840- win
S&P 500 reached its highest at 1840 & dropped to expire @ 1838.17 at 11am EST
S&P 500 also stayed below 1840 for the rest of the day & dropped further
Sell slightly lower @ 1839 then 1838 later at higher risk for more possible wins
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840
Sell S&P 500 @ 1840 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Economic news better than expected but S&P 500 shouldn't go too high before FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm EST, 1840 was also yesterday's resistance
Risk: Economic news better than expected but S&P 500 shouldn't go too high before FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm EST, 1840 was also yesterday's resistance
US economic reports update
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Actual: 238K Estimate: 199K Previous: 229K
Actual: 238K Estimate: 199K Previous: 229K
US economic events 8 January 2014
8:15am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
2:00pm
FOMC Meeting Minutes
3:00pm
Consumer Credit m/m
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
2:00pm
FOMC Meeting Minutes
3:00pm
Consumer Credit m/m
Tuesday, 7 January 2014
Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- 3 wins
Previous signals:
S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1830 but it still wants to go higher, especially after better than expected economic news
High risk:
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- 3 wins
S&P Futures broke above 1830 & continued to go higher, expiring @ 1832.45 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in all charts below are EST+13hours)
S&P Futures dropped back to 1830 & rebounded to go higher & expired @ 1831.65 at 12:30pm EST
S&P Futures dropped below 1830 but couldn't drop any further as it found small support @ 1828.65 & rebounded back up
It also wasn't quite safe to sell as stocks went higher after better than expected economic news & confirmation of Yellen as Fed Chairman yesterday, which is good for stocks
Therefore selling S&P Futures @ 1830 is not recommended & riskier but still possible to win if using less than 30 minutes expiration (5-15 minutes)
It would be safer to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 after it went back up, stayed above & went higher, expiring @ 1832.15 at 3pm EST
S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1830 but it still wants to go higher, especially after better than expected economic news
High risk:
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- 3 wins
S&P Futures broke above 1830 & continued to go higher, expiring @ 1832.45 at 10:30am EST
(Time shown in all charts below are EST+13hours)
S&P Futures dropped back to 1830 & rebounded to go higher & expired @ 1831.65 at 12:30pm EST
S&P Futures dropped below 1830 but couldn't drop any further as it found small support @ 1828.65 & rebounded back up
It also wasn't quite safe to sell as stocks went higher after better than expected economic news & confirmation of Yellen as Fed Chairman yesterday, which is good for stocks
Therefore selling S&P Futures @ 1830 is not recommended & riskier but still possible to win if using less than 30 minutes expiration (5-15 minutes)
It would be safer to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 after it went back up, stayed above & went higher, expiring @ 1832.15 at 3pm EST
Buy/Sell S&P Futures @ 1830
S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1830 but it still wants to go higher, especially after better than expected economic news
High risk:
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
High risk:
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- win, Sell S&P Futures @ 1830- win
Previous Analysis & Trading Signals to watch:
S&P Futures support @ 1823, resistance @ 1830
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point
Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes
All for 30 minutes expiration
Update:
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- win, Sell S&P Futures @ 1830- win
Buy S&P Futures @ 1830 as it stayed above & went higher for it to expire @ 1832.15 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 after it dropped below & further for it to expire @ 1826.45 at 10:00am EST
S&P Futures also dropped further below 1823 after worse than expected economic news, making signal "buy S&P Futures @ 1823" invalid as support is broken
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 also invalid as it couldn't be reached again anymore
S&P Futures support @ 1823, resistance @ 1830
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point
Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes
All for 30 minutes expiration
Update:
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- win, Sell S&P Futures @ 1830- win
Buy S&P Futures @ 1830 as it stayed above & went higher for it to expire @ 1832.15 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 after it dropped below & further for it to expire @ 1826.45 at 10:00am EST
S&P Futures also dropped further below 1823 after worse than expected economic news, making signal "buy S&P Futures @ 1823" invalid as support is broken
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 also invalid as it couldn't be reached again anymore
Monday, 6 January 2014
US economic reports update
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 53.0 Estimate: 54.6 Previous: 53.9
Factory Orders m/m
Actual: 1.8% Estimate: 1.8% Previous: -0.9%
Actual: 53.0 Estimate: 54.6 Previous: 53.9
Factory Orders m/m
Actual: 1.8% Estimate: 1.8% Previous: -0.9%
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832
S&P Futures broke above 1830 resistance & went higher after slightly worse than expected economic news
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Final Services PMI update
Final Services PMI
Actual: 55.7 Estimate: 56.0 Previous: 56.0
(only slightly worse than expected)
Actual: 55.7 Estimate: 56.0 Previous: 56.0
(only slightly worse than expected)
S&P Futures Analysis & Trading Signals to watch
S&P Futures support @ 1823, resistance @ 1830
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point
Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes
All for 30 minutes expiration
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point
Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes
All for 30 minutes expiration
US economic events 6 January 2014
9:00am
Final Services PMI
10:00am
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders m/m
5:30pm
Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
Final Services PMI
10:00am
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders m/m
5:30pm
Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
Friday, 3 January 2014
US economic news
US economic news further weakened the stock market today
Fed's Lacker: case can be made for faster taper, data would have to be much weaker to slow taper
Total Vehicle Sales worse than expected
Actual: 15.4M Estimate: 16.0M Previous: 16.4M
Fed's Lacker: case can be made for faster taper, data would have to be much weaker to slow taper
Total Vehicle Sales worse than expected
Actual: 15.4M Estimate: 16.0M Previous: 16.4M
Sell S&P 500 @ 1834- 2 wins
Sell S&P 500 @ 1834 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Results: Sell S&P 500 @ 1834- 2 wins
S&P 500 dropped further to expire @ 1829.93 at 12pm EST
S&P 500 also dropped below 1834 again at the end of the day to expire @ 1831.37 at 4pm EST
Results: Sell S&P 500 @ 1834- 2 wins
S&P 500 dropped further to expire @ 1829.93 at 12pm EST
S&P 500 also dropped below 1834 again at the end of the day to expire @ 1831.37 at 4pm EST
Sell S&P 500 @ 1836- 2 wins
Sell S&P 500 @ 1836 or lower if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1836- 2 wins
S&P 500's 1836 broken below before 11am EST, signaling a further drop later
Further drop confirmed after it failed to stay above 1836 again
S&P 500 dropped & expired @ 1831.91 at 11:30am EST
S&P 500 also failed to stay above 1836 later again near end of the day & dropped to expire @ 1831.37 at 4pm EST
Result: Sell S&P 500 @ 1836- 2 wins
S&P 500's 1836 broken below before 11am EST, signaling a further drop later
Further drop confirmed after it failed to stay above 1836 again
S&P 500 dropped & expired @ 1831.91 at 11:30am EST
S&P 500 also failed to stay above 1836 later again near end of the day & dropped to expire @ 1831.37 at 4pm EST
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832- invalid, Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- 1 win, 1 loss
Previous Analysis & Signals to watch:
S&P Futures dropped to its lowest point today @ 1820.65 but might be oversold as it rebounded strongly
Possible support @ 1820, 2nd weaker support @ 1823 although already broken, no solid support found
Highest point @ 1832 before market opens, tried to stay above 1830 but failed & dropped further
S&P Futures built small support @ 1828.45 & jumped back up to 1832 after market opened, showing that it wants to go higher today
But it's staying below 1832 & building resistance for now
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: It might fail to stay above
S&P Futures testing 1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) & 1832
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Update:
S&P Futures failed to stay above 1832, wait for it to stay above 1830 or 1832 & go higher before buying
1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) support also at risk, not safe to trade for now, unless it reverses current downtrend, stays above & goes higher
Results:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832- invalid
S&P Futures broke above but failed to stay above 1832, signal became invalid
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- 1 win, 1 loss
Signal updated as not safe to trade, too much resistance
Trade at higher risk as S&P 500 expired @ 1836.51 at 10:30am EST, which is barely a win
S&P 500 then expired @ 1836.06 at 11am EST, which is barely above 1836 but slightly lower than previous low, resulting in a loss
S&P 500's 1836 is also broken below before 11am EST, signaling a further drop later
S&P Futures dropped to its lowest point today @ 1820.65 but might be oversold as it rebounded strongly
Possible support @ 1820, 2nd weaker support @ 1823 although already broken, no solid support found
Highest point @ 1832 before market opens, tried to stay above 1830 but failed & dropped further
S&P Futures built small support @ 1828.45 & jumped back up to 1832 after market opened, showing that it wants to go higher today
But it's staying below 1832 & building resistance for now
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: It might fail to stay above
S&P Futures testing 1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) & 1832
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Update:
S&P Futures failed to stay above 1832, wait for it to stay above 1830 or 1832 & go higher before buying
1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) support also at risk, not safe to trade for now, unless it reverses current downtrend, stays above & goes higher
Results:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832- invalid
S&P Futures broke above but failed to stay above 1832, signal became invalid
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- 1 win, 1 loss
Signal updated as not safe to trade, too much resistance
Trade at higher risk as S&P 500 expired @ 1836.51 at 10:30am EST, which is barely a win
S&P 500 then expired @ 1836.06 at 11am EST, which is barely above 1836 but slightly lower than previous low, resulting in a loss
S&P 500's 1836 is also broken below before 11am EST, signaling a further drop later
Sell S&P 500 @ 1834
Sell S&P 500 @ 1834 if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Sell S&P 500 @ 1836
Sell S&P 500 @ 1836 or lower if it stays below & drops further, for 30 minutes expiration
Not safe to trade for now
S&P Futures failed to stay above 1832, wait for it to stay above 1830 or 1832 & go higher before buying
1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) support also at risk, not safe to trade for now, unless it reverses current downtrend, stays above & goes higher
1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) support also at risk, not safe to trade for now, unless it reverses current downtrend, stays above & goes higher
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832, Buy S&P 500 @ 1836
S&P Futures dropped to its lowest point today @ 1820.65 but might be oversold as it rebounded strongly
Possible support @ 1820, 2nd weaker support @ 1823 although already broken, no solid support found
Highest point @ 1832 before market opens, tried to stay above 1830 but failed & dropped further
S&P Futures built small support @ 1828.45 & jumped back up to 1832 after market opened, showing that it wants to go higher today
But it's staying below 1832 & building resistance for now
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: It might fail to stay above
S&P Futures testing 1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) & 1832
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Possible support @ 1820, 2nd weaker support @ 1823 although already broken, no solid support found
Highest point @ 1832 before market opens, tried to stay above 1830 but failed & dropped further
S&P Futures built small support @ 1828.45 & jumped back up to 1832 after market opened, showing that it wants to go higher today
But it's staying below 1832 & building resistance for now
Buy S&P Futures @ 1832 if it breaks above & goes higher, for less than 30 minutes expiration
Risk: It might fail to stay above
S&P Futures testing 1830 (S&P 500 @ 1836) & 1832
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
US economic events 3 January 2014
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales
12:45pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
1:15pm
FOMC Member Stein Speaks
2:30pm
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Total Vehicle Sales
12:45pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
1:15pm
FOMC Member Stein Speaks
2:30pm
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- win at higher risk
ISM Manufacturing PMI only slightly better than expected & worse than previous
S&P 500 new possible support @ 1836 although slightly broken
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Results: Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- win at higher risk
S&P 500 stayed above 1836 to expire @ 1837.37 at 11am EST but also dropped below later, stop trading when it did not met our condition to stay above 1836
Not quite safe to trade today as S&P 500 dropped from 1848.36 last closing price to 1831.98 today, which is too low yet still no strong supports found as all possible supports & even 1830 were broken
S&P 500 new possible support @ 1836 although slightly broken
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
Results: Buy S&P 500 @ 1836- win at higher risk
S&P 500 stayed above 1836 to expire @ 1837.37 at 11am EST but also dropped below later, stop trading when it did not met our condition to stay above 1836
Not quite safe to trade today as S&P 500 dropped from 1848.36 last closing price to 1831.98 today, which is too low yet still no strong supports found as all possible supports & even 1830 were broken
Buy S&P Futures @ 1836- win at higher risk
Previous signals to watch:
S&P Futures dropped to 1834.65 & rebounded @ 1835, broke above 1840 only for a few minutes but failed to stay above & dropped to rebound strongly @ 1836
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1835 or 1836 (S&P 500 @ 1839 or 1840) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays below & drops further, buy S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1845 (S&P 500 @ 1850) stronger resistance if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
Update: Stock Futures weakened & dropped further after worse than expected Unemployment Claims, trading risk increased for buying as it's weak for now & might break below supports
Result: buy S&P Futures @ 1836- win at higher risk
S&P Futures weakened after worse than expected Unemployment Claims & couldn't go higher than 1838, therefore signals above 1838 are invalid as targets couldn't be reached
However, it still managed to barely stay above 1836 before the market opened
Although it's not really safe to trade, it's still possible to win before it breaks below
Trade at higher risk for S&P Futures to expire @ 1836.45 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Stop trading when S&P Futures dropped straight below 1836 & even 1835 after market opened
S&P Futures dropped to 1834.65 & rebounded @ 1835, broke above 1840 only for a few minutes but failed to stay above & dropped to rebound strongly @ 1836
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1835 or 1836 (S&P 500 @ 1839 or 1840) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays below & drops further, buy S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1845 (S&P 500 @ 1850) stronger resistance if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
Update: Stock Futures weakened & dropped further after worse than expected Unemployment Claims, trading risk increased for buying as it's weak for now & might break below supports
Result: buy S&P Futures @ 1836- win at higher risk
S&P Futures weakened after worse than expected Unemployment Claims & couldn't go higher than 1838, therefore signals above 1838 are invalid as targets couldn't be reached
However, it still managed to barely stay above 1836 before the market opened
Although it's not really safe to trade, it's still possible to win before it breaks below
Trade at higher risk for S&P Futures to expire @ 1836.45 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Stop trading when S&P Futures dropped straight below 1836 & even 1835 after market opened
Thursday, 2 January 2014
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836
ISM Manufacturing PMI only slightly better than expected & worse than previous
S&P 500 new possible support @ 1836 although slightly broken
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
S&P 500 new possible support @ 1836 although slightly broken
High risk:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1836 or S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration
US economic reports update
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 57.0 Estimate: 56.8 Previous: 57.3
Construction Spending m/m
Actual: 1.0% Estimate: 0.7% Previous: 0.8%
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Actual: 53.5 Estimate: 53.0 Previous: 52.5
Actual: 57.0 Estimate: 56.8 Previous: 57.3
Construction Spending m/m
Actual: 1.0% Estimate: 0.7% Previous: 0.8%
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Actual: 53.5 Estimate: 53.0 Previous: 52.5
Not safe to trade for now
Most trading signals invalid after stock market opened @ 9:30am EST, weakened by worse than expected Unemployment Claims
All supports broken, not safe to trade for now
Wait for ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am EST to see if the market stabilizes
Trading will be at a higher risk today
Sell S&P 500 @ 1842 if it reaches & drops further again, for 30 minutes expiration
All supports broken, not safe to trade for now
Wait for ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am EST to see if the market stabilizes
Trading will be at a higher risk today
Sell S&P 500 @ 1842 if it reaches & drops further again, for 30 minutes expiration
Stock Futures update
Stock Futures weakened & dropped further after worse than expected Unemployment Claims, trading risk increased for buying as it's weak for now & might break below supports
Other economic news will also affect it later
Other economic news will also affect it later
Unemployment Claims update
Unemployment Claims
Actual: 339K Estimate: 334K Previous: 338K
(higher= worse than expected)
Actual: 339K Estimate: 334K Previous: 338K
(higher= worse than expected)
Stock Market Analysis & Trading Signals to watch
S&P Futures dropped to 1834.65 & rebounded @ 1835, broke above 1840 only for a few minutes but failed to stay above & dropped to rebound strongly @ 1836
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1835 or 1836 (S&P 500 @ 1839 or 1840) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays below & drops further, buy S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1845 (S&P 500 @ 1850) stronger resistance if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
S&P Futures targeting 1840 to become turning point for 8:30am EST's Unemployment Claims
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1835 or 1836 (S&P 500 @ 1839 or 1840) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays below & drops further, buy S&P Futures @ 1840 (S&P 500 @ 1844) if it stays above & goes higher
Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1845 (S&P 500 @ 1850) stronger resistance if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less
S&P Futures targeting 1840 to become turning point for 8:30am EST's Unemployment Claims
US economic reports 2 January 2014
8:30am
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00am
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending m/m
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Unemployment Claims
9:00am
Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00am
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending m/m
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Wednesday, 1 January 2014
Trading signals to watch 2014
S&P 500's highest point reached was 1849.44 with target @ 1850 but it's too high for today as it tried twice & failed to even reach 1850
We previously mentioned on 26 December that next target should be 1850 before end of the year 2013
1850 should continue to be targeted & become important support or resistance in the beginning of 2014, depending on if it breaks above or stays below
Watch S&P 500 @ 1850 key level, look to sell if it stays below, buy if it breaks above
The stock market will be closed tomorrow on New Year 1 January 2014
We previously mentioned on 26 December that next target should be 1850 before end of the year 2013
1850 should continue to be targeted & become important support or resistance in the beginning of 2014, depending on if it breaks above or stays below
Watch S&P 500 @ 1850 key level, look to sell if it stays below, buy if it breaks above
The stock market will be closed tomorrow on New Year 1 January 2014
Buy S&P 500 @ 1844- 2 wins, sell S&P 500 @ 1844- 1 win
Previous signals to watch:
S&P Futures broke above resistance & went higher, showing a lot of strength but went up too high too early again
S&P 500 new resistance @ 1844 but it might be able to go even higher if economic news especially Consumer Confidence are better than expected
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1844 if it breaks above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration, sell @ 1844 if it fails & drops further
If it fails, S&P 500 might drop back to test 1840 again
Look to buy S&P 500 around 1839 or 1840 (support not confirmed yet for today) if it rebounds, stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration, especially if economic news are better than expected & the market goes up after that
Today's the end of the year 2013 & trading will be at a higher risk as stocks might also drop instead of going higher due to profit taking
Updates:
New possible resistance @ S&P Futures' 1840 (S&P 500 around 1845.5)
S&P Futures found small support @ 1839 (S&P 500 around 1844.5) & is trying to stay above 1840 (S&P 500 around 1845.5) & go even higher
Results: Buy S&P 500 @ 1844- 2 wins, sell S&P 500 @ 1844- 1 win
Buy S&P 500 @ 1844 as it broke above 1844 & went higher at 10am EST after Consumer Confidence was better than expected & expired @ 1844.99 at 10:30am EST
S&P 500 stayed below 1845.5 for around an hour then broke above & jumped to 1848.55 but slowly dropped back as it was too high
After it dropped below 1844, sell S&P 500 @ 1844 as it expired @ 1843.58 at 3pm EST
S&P 500 managed to stay above 1842 & rebound to go higher, but safer supports were at 1839 or 1840 & wasn't reached
Buy S&P 500 @ 1844 after it broke above 1844 again at 3:30pm EST & went higher to expire @ 1848.36 at 4pm EST
S&P Futures broke above resistance & went higher, showing a lot of strength but went up too high too early again
S&P 500 new resistance @ 1844 but it might be able to go even higher if economic news especially Consumer Confidence are better than expected
Look to buy S&P 500 @ 1844 if it breaks above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration, sell @ 1844 if it fails & drops further
If it fails, S&P 500 might drop back to test 1840 again
Look to buy S&P 500 around 1839 or 1840 (support not confirmed yet for today) if it rebounds, stays above & goes higher, for 30 minutes expiration, especially if economic news are better than expected & the market goes up after that
Today's the end of the year 2013 & trading will be at a higher risk as stocks might also drop instead of going higher due to profit taking
Updates:
New possible resistance @ S&P Futures' 1840 (S&P 500 around 1845.5)
S&P Futures found small support @ 1839 (S&P 500 around 1844.5) & is trying to stay above 1840 (S&P 500 around 1845.5) & go even higher
Results: Buy S&P 500 @ 1844- 2 wins, sell S&P 500 @ 1844- 1 win
Buy S&P 500 @ 1844 as it broke above 1844 & went higher at 10am EST after Consumer Confidence was better than expected & expired @ 1844.99 at 10:30am EST
S&P 500 stayed below 1845.5 for around an hour then broke above & jumped to 1848.55 but slowly dropped back as it was too high
After it dropped below 1844, sell S&P 500 @ 1844 as it expired @ 1843.58 at 3pm EST
S&P 500 managed to stay above 1842 & rebound to go higher, but safer supports were at 1839 or 1840 & wasn't reached
Buy S&P 500 @ 1844 after it broke above 1844 again at 3:30pm EST & went higher to expire @ 1848.36 at 4pm EST
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