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Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Buy/Sell S&P Futures @ 1830

S&P Futures possible resistance @ 1830 but it still wants to go higher, especially after better than expected economic news

High risk:
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further
All for 30 minutes expiration or less


Trade Balance update

Trade Balance        
Actual: -34.3B    Estimate: -40.2B    Previous: -39.3B

US economic reports 7 January 2014

8:30am
Trade Balance

10:00am
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- win, Sell S&P Futures @ 1830- win

Previous Analysis & Trading Signals to watch:
S&P Futures support @ 1823, resistance @ 1830
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher

Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point

Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes
All for 30 minutes expiration

Update:
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1830- win, Sell S&P Futures @ 1830- win
Buy S&P Futures @ 1830 as it stayed above & went higher for it to expire @ 1832.15 at 9:30am EST
(Time shown in chart is EST+13hours)
Sell S&P Futures @ 1830 after it dropped below & further for it to expire @ 1826.45 at 10:00am EST



S&P Futures also dropped further below 1823 after worse than expected economic news, making signal "buy S&P Futures @ 1823" invalid as support is broken
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 also invalid as it couldn't be reached again anymore

Monday, 6 January 2014

US economic reports update

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Actual: 53.0   Estimate: 54.6   Previous: 53.9
Factory Orders m/m
Actual: 1.8%   Estimate: 1.8%   Previous: -0.9%

Sell S&P Futures @ 1832

S&P Futures broke above 1830 resistance & went higher after slightly worse than expected economic news
Stronger resistance @ 1832-1834
Sell S&P Futures @ 1832 if it stays below & drops further, for less than 30 minutes expiration

Final Services PMI update

Final Services PMI
Actual: 55.7   Estimate: 56.0   Previous: 56.0

(only slightly worse than expected)

S&P Futures Analysis & Trading Signals to watch

S&P Futures support @ 1823, resistance @ 1830
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1823 if it stays above & goes higher

Look to sell S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays below & drops further, especially if economic news is worse than expected
Look to buy S&P Futures @ 1830 if it stays above & goes higher, especially if economic news is better than expected
Most important economic news will be ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might be the turning point

Risk: 1830 might be tested several times during economic news before the market stabilizes

All for 30 minutes expiration

US economic events 6 January 2014

9:00am
Final Services PMI
10:00am
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders m/m

5:30pm
Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

Friday, 3 January 2014

US economic news

US economic news further weakened the stock market today
Fed's Lacker: case can be made for faster taper, data would have to be much weaker to slow taper

Total Vehicle Sales worse than expected
Actual: 15.4M   Estimate: 16.0M   Previous: 16.4M