Buy S&P 500 @ 1750- won

High risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1750 if S&P Futures & S&P 500 breaks & stays above 1750, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations at 9:55am EST will affect the market

Result: won
S&P 500 expired @ 1757.60 at 10:30am EST, 30 minutes after Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations are announced, even after dropping below 1750 earlier
But S&P Futures was still below 1750 at that time therefore not safe to trade yet
After S&P Futures & S&P 500 broke & stayed above 1750, that was the confirmation needed for a safe & easy win even when it's quite risky to trade
It also continued even higher & finally closed @ 1770.61

Sell S&P Futures @ 1740- invalid

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1740 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it drops & stays below
Risk: Trading NFP can be very risky

Result: invalid
S&P Futures did not stay below 1740 & rebounded above 1740 therefore signal is invalid

Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations update

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Actual: 72.0   Estimate: 74.6   Previous: 73.2
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Actual: 3.1%   Previous: 3.0%

Consumer Sentiment is worse than expected, buying S&P 500 will be at a higher risk even if it stays above

Buy S&P 500 @ 1750

High risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1750 if S&P Futures & S&P 500 breaks & stays above 1750, for 30 minutes expiration
Risk: Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations at 9:55am EST will affect the market

Better employment numbers increases the chances of tapering sooner & stocks should drop more
However, stocks dropped too much & might rebound
S&P Futures rebounded above 1740 therefore previous signal is invalid
Stocks continue to go higher even after breaking below supports & trading will be at a higher risk
S&P Futures stronger resistance @ 1748, 1750 but not safe to sell anymore
S&P 500 possible resistance/rebound @ 1750

Sell S&P Futures @ 1740

High risk trade:
Sell S&P Futures @ 1740 for less than 30 minutes expiration if it drops & stays below
Risk: Trading NFP can be very risky

Stock Futures dropped sharply less than 1 minute before 8:30am EST
S&P Futures dropped from 1748 to 1737 3 minutes after NFP is announced
However, it rebounded & is staying above 1740 temporarily
A drop below 1740 should be a sell

US economic reports update

Non-Farm Employment Change
Actual: 204K   Estimate: 121K   Previous: 148K
Unemployment Rate
Actual: 7.3%   Estimate: 7.3%   Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Actual: 0.1%   Estimate: 0.2%   Previous: 0.1%
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Actual: 0.1%   Estimate: 0.1%   Previous: 0.2%
Personal Spending m/m
Actual: 0.2%   Estimate: 0.3%   Previous: 0.3%
Personal Income m/m
Actual: 0.5%   Estimate: 0.3%   Previous: 0.4%

US economic events 8 November 2013

8:30am
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Personal Spending m/m
Personal Income m/m

9:55am
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

1:10pm
President Obama Speaks
3:30pm
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Stocks to watch tomorrow

Stocks continued to drop despite Consumer Credit being better than expected
Consumer Credit m/m
Actual: 13.7B   Estimate: 13.0B   Previous: 14.2B

Stocks should try to rebound but drop further at the end of the day tomorrow if investors trade cautiously
However, US economic news especially NFP, President Obama's & Fed Chairman Bernanke's speeches will also affect the market
So the market will be very risky to trade tomorrow, trade less & more cautiously

Twitter debuted its stock @ 45.1 & reached 50 but dropped back sharply,
faced resistance @ 46, broke above it @ 1:48pm EST but only reached 48.46 & closed @ 44.90
Stock also dropped from 44.90 to 44.30 after-market
Market sentiment should continue to be bearish
Twitter's stock is too risky to trade for now but possible to drop more tomorrow

Disney reported earnings that beat estimates only by 1 cent per share after market closed
Stock dropped from 69.34 to 67.15  & dropped further to 65.17 after-market & might be oversold as it broke below possible support @ 66, 2nd support @ 65

Buy S&P 500 @ 1770- invalid

Medium risk trade:
Buy S&P 500 @ 1770 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it breaks & stays above
S&P 500 possible rebound & support @ 1770 even after it dropped below

Result: invalid
S&P 500 slightly broke above 1770 but failed to stay above therefore signal is invalid

We further mentioned that 2nd possible support @ 1765 also failed, 3rd @ 1760 but it doesn't look safe to trade anymore after it kept falling
All supports were weak for the past few days but stocks continued to go higher, so it's also possible for S&P 500 to rebound below supports again but not really safe to trade

S&P 500 then dropped below 1760 then rebounded back up to 1765 & dropped again, even breaking below 1750 to close @ 1747.15, showing that we were correct but it's too risky to trade because the market might continue to go higher despite breaking below supports like before
Tomorrow's NFP should make the market even more unstable, continue to trade less & more cautiously until it's stabilized
Possible rebound @ 1750 tomorrow even after it dropped below but it'll be risky to trade

Buy S&P Futures @ 1770- won, Sell S&P Futures @ 1773- won

High risk trades:
Buy S&P Futures @ 1770 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays above
Sell S&P Futures @ 1773 for 30 minutes expiration or less if it stays below
5 minutes expiration preferred, breaking above or below will be at a higher risk

Results: Buy S&P Futures @ 1770- won, Sell S&P Futures @ 1773- won
S&P Futures expired around 1771.2 at 9am EST (14:00 GMT)
S&P Futures dropped from 1773 & rebounded from 1770 as we expected, providing 2 opportunities to win at a time