S&P 500 dropped for the 5th day in a row, the longest losing streak this year
S&P Futures shows that stocks are trying to rebound today but there are still reasons to be cautious
There are still concerns about America's economic recovery, QE tapering, too much debt & risk of government shutdown
Trading will be riskier until these problems are solved
There might also be sudden high impact news that can change the whole market
Market Psychology:
Not many people will be willing to buy more stocks because of those problems
But since stocks are oversold for the 5th day, bargain hunters can be willing to buy stocks at a low price & push stocks up while others hold their stocks, not sure whether to buy or sell because of uncertainties
Conclusion: It's possible for stocks to rebound & go higher but there will be strong resistances
If it fails to break & stay above resistances for a long time, it should drop more like it did yesterday
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Showing posts with label Stock Market Psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market Psychology. Show all posts
Thursday, 26 September 2013
Friday, 23 August 2013
Stock market analysis
Stocks seem to be edging higher
S&P 500 support went from 1650 to 1652 yesterday & now @ 1654, resistance @ 1660
Looking at S&P Futures, we calculate that S&P 500 went up to 1660 & dropped steeply to 1654 then rebounded back to 1657, yesterday's closing price
1660 should be a strong resistance, unless it manages to break above, it should drop again
Look to sell S&P 500 if it reaches around 1660 & drop again
Looking at the price pattern & how far it dropped, we speculate that S&P 500 will go up, reach 1660, stay there for a while & drop again at the end of the day
But it will depend on rational market behaviour for that to happen & it might not happen at all
Friday's the most volatile day of the week when market might behave irrationally
Market Psychology: Bullish, uncertain, greed might be more than fear
The market should be more cautious, buy less & ponder if they should buy more, then decide not to take the risk & take profit at the end of the day as they await results of the Jackson Hole Symposium for more clarity about tapering
If greed comes into play as we expect, they will buy more & break above 1660, but there's still a chance for them to reconsider & sell at the end of the day
S&P 500 support went from 1650 to 1652 yesterday & now @ 1654, resistance @ 1660
Looking at S&P Futures, we calculate that S&P 500 went up to 1660 & dropped steeply to 1654 then rebounded back to 1657, yesterday's closing price
1660 should be a strong resistance, unless it manages to break above, it should drop again
Look to sell S&P 500 if it reaches around 1660 & drop again
Looking at the price pattern & how far it dropped, we speculate that S&P 500 will go up, reach 1660, stay there for a while & drop again at the end of the day
But it will depend on rational market behaviour for that to happen & it might not happen at all
Friday's the most volatile day of the week when market might behave irrationally
Market Psychology: Bullish, uncertain, greed might be more than fear
The market should be more cautious, buy less & ponder if they should buy more, then decide not to take the risk & take profit at the end of the day as they await results of the Jackson Hole Symposium for more clarity about tapering
If greed comes into play as we expect, they will buy more & break above 1660, but there's still a chance for them to reconsider & sell at the end of the day
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