Senate announced a deal to raise US debt ceiling & reopen government
The House & Senate will both vote to approve the deal
Both sides are confident that US House will have enough votes to approve Senate deal
Voting is between 6-7pm EDT & 8-10pm EDT
The House's statement: The House has fought with everything it has to convince the president of the United States to engage in bipartisan negotiations aimed at addressing our country's debt and providing fairness for the American people under ObamaCare. That fight will continue. But blocking the bipartisan agreement reached today by the members of the Senate will not be a tactic for us
Therefore the deal to raise US debt ceiling & reopen government will most likely be approved by midnight
But it might've already been priced into the market as it is reaching an all-time high
Watch S&P 500's 1730 for possible resistance, traders might sell & take profit at 1730
If it breaks & stays above, it should continue going up higher
Look to buy S&P 500 if it breaks & stays above 1730
It is also highly possible for the market to be overbought or oversold, therefore technicals may not be quite accurate
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Showing posts with label US political news analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US political news analysis. Show all posts
Wednesday, 16 October 2013
Stock Market & US Political News Analysis
The stock market closed below 1700 after a very volatile trading session
Stock futures were higher, expecting a deal to be done today, but it'll probably be at the 11th hour, after stock markets closes or even delayed after the deadline if the Congress are willing to let it happen as they did with the shutdown
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett characterized it as "idiocy"
The fact is the shutdown does not benefit anyone even if they "win" this political battle, which they think they must win & stubbornly not compromising, letting something bad happen to blame the other side for it
Obama continues rejecting any changes especially to Obamacare & might only accept a deal which reopens the government & raise debt limit unconditionally
The Republicans think they must at least somehow defund Obama's signature Obamacare to undermine him
US will not default yet until around Oct 22-31 even if the debt limit isn't raised in time as the Treasury will still have about $30 billion in funds after the October 17 deadline, but US "AAA" ratings will be downgraded & US dollar will lose its credibility if it already hasn't
House Republicans postpones vote on bill to reopen government & avoid default as plans failed & they might have to surrender & agree to Senates deal
US Senates will meet at 12pm EDT today
We expect more breaking news today
Unless an agreement is made, the market will continue to be volatile
Trade less or none at all today
Stock futures were higher, expecting a deal to be done today, but it'll probably be at the 11th hour, after stock markets closes or even delayed after the deadline if the Congress are willing to let it happen as they did with the shutdown
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett characterized it as "idiocy"
The fact is the shutdown does not benefit anyone even if they "win" this political battle, which they think they must win & stubbornly not compromising, letting something bad happen to blame the other side for it
Obama continues rejecting any changes especially to Obamacare & might only accept a deal which reopens the government & raise debt limit unconditionally
The Republicans think they must at least somehow defund Obama's signature Obamacare to undermine him
US will not default yet until around Oct 22-31 even if the debt limit isn't raised in time as the Treasury will still have about $30 billion in funds after the October 17 deadline, but US "AAA" ratings will be downgraded & US dollar will lose its credibility if it already hasn't
House Republicans postpones vote on bill to reopen government & avoid default as plans failed & they might have to surrender & agree to Senates deal
US Senates will meet at 12pm EDT today
We expect more breaking news today
Unless an agreement is made, the market will continue to be volatile
Trade less or none at all today
Monday, 14 October 2013
Abandon Sell S&P 500 @ 1710 (Meeting postponement update)
Update: White House officials said the postponement should be seen as "positive"
"The president’s 3:00 p.m. meeting with the bipartisan leadership has been postponed to allow leaders in the Senate time to continue making important progress towards a solution that raises the debt limit and reopens the government"
The postponement shows that Obama is intentionally putting more pressure on the Republicans & will try to save the situation at the last minute if Republicans decide not to
Wait for market reaction & watch 1710
Update: S&P 500 is building support @ 1706.45 but 1710 still remains a resistance
Abandon selling S&P 500 @ 1710 even if it stays below because of the update, trend might reverse & continue higher
Too risky to trade because of news updates, market is volatile now
"The president’s 3:00 p.m. meeting with the bipartisan leadership has been postponed to allow leaders in the Senate time to continue making important progress towards a solution that raises the debt limit and reopens the government"
The postponement shows that Obama is intentionally putting more pressure on the Republicans & will try to save the situation at the last minute if Republicans decide not to
Wait for market reaction & watch 1710
Update: S&P 500 is building support @ 1706.45 but 1710 still remains a resistance
Abandon selling S&P 500 @ 1710 even if it stays below because of the update, trend might reverse & continue higher
Too risky to trade because of news updates, market is volatile now
US political news analysis
According to the White House daily briefing on Friday, although not mentioned explicitly, Obama obviously rejected a debt limit raise & end to shutdown but more "constructive conversations" are expected
"No agreement has been made yet"
Obama refers the Republicans as "terrorists demanding ransom" when they proposed some changes
Obama stands firm saying "we do not negotiate with terrorists"
"our position has not changed"
"we should not & cannot allow Republicans to collect 'ransom' for raising debt"
"no demand, however small, is acceptable" indicates that Obama does not want any changes or "demands"
Obama believes that the Republicans should raise the debt limit & reopen the government without "demanding any ransom"
Conclusion: Obama might continue rejecting any changes especially to Obamacare & only accept a deal which reopens the government & raise debt limit unconditionally, continuing to blame & put pressure on the Republicans until the last minute, because that's his mentality shown from the beginning & it has not changed
We mentioned this before the shutdown:
It seems that the only hope is that the Republicans will have no choice but to compromise & lose this political battle to avert a government shutdown because they show that they are willing to negotiate but the Democrats are not
It appears to be the same situation again for the debt limit issue
Another hope is that Obama will change his mindset & accept a slight change to emerge as the "savior" that sacrificed & paid a "ransom" to end this crisis
Debt limit issue might only be resolved at the last minute
No matter what, Obama will continue to accuse the Republicans as terrorists after it ends
Look to sell stocks on the low probability of a debt limit deal today, buy if investors continue to trade on "hope" or other positive news
"No agreement has been made yet"
Obama refers the Republicans as "terrorists demanding ransom" when they proposed some changes
Obama stands firm saying "we do not negotiate with terrorists"
"our position has not changed"
"we should not & cannot allow Republicans to collect 'ransom' for raising debt"
"no demand, however small, is acceptable" indicates that Obama does not want any changes or "demands"
Obama believes that the Republicans should raise the debt limit & reopen the government without "demanding any ransom"
Conclusion: Obama might continue rejecting any changes especially to Obamacare & only accept a deal which reopens the government & raise debt limit unconditionally, continuing to blame & put pressure on the Republicans until the last minute, because that's his mentality shown from the beginning & it has not changed
We mentioned this before the shutdown:
It seems that the only hope is that the Republicans will have no choice but to compromise & lose this political battle to avert a government shutdown because they show that they are willing to negotiate but the Democrats are not
It appears to be the same situation again for the debt limit issue
Another hope is that Obama will change his mindset & accept a slight change to emerge as the "savior" that sacrificed & paid a "ransom" to end this crisis
Debt limit issue might only be resolved at the last minute
No matter what, Obama will continue to accuse the Republicans as terrorists after it ends
Look to sell stocks on the low probability of a debt limit deal today, buy if investors continue to trade on "hope" or other positive news
Wednesday, 9 October 2013
Stock Market & Political News Analysis
S&P 500 was trying to rebound from 1670 at the beginning (8 Oct 2013)
But it failed after economic data showed a huge drop in Economic Optimism / Consumer Confidence
S&P 500 then broke below important support @ 1670
After failing to rebound, S&P 500 continued to drop & closed @ 1655.45
S&P 500 is severely oversold & will try to rebound but should continue to drop more if there's no sign of resolution to end the US government shutdown & raise the debt limit
President Obama said he's prepared to talk about anything, but only after the shutdown & debt limit is resolved
This shows that he's not really open to negotiations during the shutdown, especially over Obamacare
Obama also issued a statement that he would veto & reject the approval of a "supercommittee" to negotiate US spending & deficit
Boehner said in private that he's not going to bring up a clean CR & "there's no way the president holds firm"
"I don’t know how the debt limit will be addressed, but it won’t be by Republican capitulation"
President Obama said: "If that's the theory... it's not going to work"
This confirms our theory that "They're using the government shutdown & debt limit issue to pressure each other into losing their political battle but both sides have not backed down since then"
It seems like their game plan is to stubbornly hold firm & continue waiting for the other party to give in instead of properly trying to resolve the situation, then blame the other side when a shutdown happens or if US fails to pay its bills on time
Although both sides said in public that they wouldn't let the government shutdown & they're willing to negotiate, results showed otherwise
Both parties are prioritizing their political agendas over the economy & people of America
Neither are willing to be the better man & save US from this fiscal crisis
Therefore the shutdown & debt limit issue is unlikely to be resolved soon unless they change their mindset
Look to sell S&P 500 tomorrow if the market fails to rebound & continues to drop (9 Oct 2013)
But it failed after economic data showed a huge drop in Economic Optimism / Consumer Confidence
S&P 500 then broke below important support @ 1670
After failing to rebound, S&P 500 continued to drop & closed @ 1655.45
S&P 500 is severely oversold & will try to rebound but should continue to drop more if there's no sign of resolution to end the US government shutdown & raise the debt limit
President Obama said he's prepared to talk about anything, but only after the shutdown & debt limit is resolved
This shows that he's not really open to negotiations during the shutdown, especially over Obamacare
Obama also issued a statement that he would veto & reject the approval of a "supercommittee" to negotiate US spending & deficit
Boehner said in private that he's not going to bring up a clean CR & "there's no way the president holds firm"
"I don’t know how the debt limit will be addressed, but it won’t be by Republican capitulation"
President Obama said: "If that's the theory... it's not going to work"
This confirms our theory that "They're using the government shutdown & debt limit issue to pressure each other into losing their political battle but both sides have not backed down since then"
It seems like their game plan is to stubbornly hold firm & continue waiting for the other party to give in instead of properly trying to resolve the situation, then blame the other side when a shutdown happens or if US fails to pay its bills on time
Although both sides said in public that they wouldn't let the government shutdown & they're willing to negotiate, results showed otherwise
Both parties are prioritizing their political agendas over the economy & people of America
Neither are willing to be the better man & save US from this fiscal crisis
Therefore the shutdown & debt limit issue is unlikely to be resolved soon unless they change their mindset
Look to sell S&P 500 tomorrow if the market fails to rebound & continues to drop (9 Oct 2013)
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