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Friday 23 August 2013

Stock market analysis

Stocks seem to be edging higher
S&P 500 support went from 1650 to 1652 yesterday & now @ 1654, resistance @ 1660

Looking at S&P Futures, we calculate that S&P 500 went up to 1660 & dropped steeply to 1654 then rebounded back to 1657, yesterday's closing price
1660 should be a strong resistance, unless it manages to break above, it should drop again

Look to sell S&P 500 if it reaches around 1660 & drop again
Looking at the price pattern & how far it dropped, we speculate that S&P 500 will go up, reach 1660, stay there for a while & drop again at the end of the day
But it will depend on rational market behaviour for that to happen & it might not happen at all
Friday's the most volatile day of the week when market might behave irrationally

Market Psychology: Bullish, uncertain, greed might be more than fear
The market should be more cautious, buy less & ponder if they should buy more, then decide not to take the risk & take profit at the end of the day as they await results of the Jackson Hole Symposium for more clarity about tapering
If greed comes into play as we expect, they will buy more & break above 1660, but there's still a chance for them to reconsider & sell at the end of the day

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